AFC Divisional Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Bills and Chiefs… again. I was rooting hard for the Miami Dolphins to upset the Kansas City Chiefs last week to avoid this matchup. But, in a way, it is poetic that, if the Bills are to win the Super Bowl this year, they will have to go through the team that has stood in their way and ended their season two of the past three years. But here we are and, by all accounts, everyone at Orchard Park is relishing the opportunity to host the Chiefs this week. Let’s dive in.

The Allen vs. Mahomes Era

Bills 20 Chiefs 17 (2023)
Bills 24 Chiefs 20 (2022)
Chiefs 42 Bills 36 (OT – 2022 AFC Divisional)
Bills 38 Chiefs 20 (2021)
Chiefs 38 Bills 24 (2021 AFC Championship)
Chiefs 26 Bills 17 (2020)

Instead of going with my usual “The Last Five”, I decided to list all six games in the Allen-Mahomes era. Allen has won three games, and Mahomes has won three games. Allen has the advantage 3-1 in the regular season, while Mahomes is 2-0 where it matters most — the playoffs. To use a hockey playoff analogy, Sunday will be the seventh game in the best of seven series between the two and the winner will advance to the AFC Championship Game. Overall, this is the 55th time the two teams have played with the Bills leading the all-time series 29-24-1.

What To Watch For: Buffalo Bills

Now Is the Time For Allen – Not all of the Bills’ losses to the Chiefs over the past four years have fallen on Josh Allen. In fact, an argument could be made that none of them were on Allen. But that is not how the history books will remember it. Josh Allen needs a win on Sunday to prove that he can get the Bills over the hump that is the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills built their roster to beat the Chiefs, and everything they have done leads up to this moment for them. A loss would be as demoralizing as they come.

Despite being the reigning World Champs, the Chiefs have had a down year. They had uncharacteristically bad losses this year. The offense looked out of sync and some of their best players seem to be missing the “IT” factor. Hmm… sounds familiar to another team at times this year, doesn’t it?

The Bills are making a big deal about finally getting the Chiefs in “their house” this week. A third playoff loss in the last four seasons would leave the Bills right back where they started when they watched the Chiefs celebrate their 2021 AFC Championship in front of their eyes. Simply put, Josh Allen and the Bills have to win this game. Even though it might not be fair, based on how the game plays out, another loss to KC and some will start to wonder if Josh Allen has what it takes to ever get the Bills beyond AFC East Division Winners.

His Name was Klein – A.J. Klein and I have a bit of a tumultuous relationship. It all stems back to his best game as a Buffalo Bill. A Week 12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers back in 2020. I was hosting a Bills party that day and all I was doing before the game was ragging on A.J. Klein for his recent play. He responded by embarrassing me at the party, dominating the game on defense and going on to win AFC Defensive Player of the Week for his performance. Not only did I lose all credibility with my friends, I learned that I would never doubt A.J. Klein again.

Insert Klein into last week, an unexpected hero thrust into the lineup due to multiple linebacker injuries. A.J. Klein went from packing his family RV for a trip to quarterbacking the defense and taking difference-making snaps for the Buffalo Bills in a playoff game. His task this week: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the rest of the defending World Champs. The legend of A.J. Klein is a real thing in my mind. Another solid performance from him on Sunday might have many fans around Western New York singing his praises, much like I have been since that game back in 2020.

Mistake-Free Football – It is not often that you win an NFL playoff game by 2+ scores. Both the Bills and Chiefs did so last week. That is due, in a large part, to both teams eliminating the mistakes from their games. Neither quarterback committed a turnover in their respective Wild Card victories. Josh Allen turned in just his fourth turnover-free game of the year against the Steelers. In a game where possessions will be as valuable as gold, ball security will be essential. Allen has had a tendency to force the ball during unnecessary moments during his career, but not against the Chiefs. You can’t point to a bad play or two made from Allen in any of his games against the Chiefs. He seems to bring his best when he lines up against KC. Hopefully, Sunday will be more of the same.

What To Watch For: Kansas City Chiefs

Better This Time Around – In their Week 14 loss to the Bills, the Chiefs were down a few key players. Most notably RB Isiah Pacheco, who has come on very strong lately for the Chiefs. Pacheco will be back on Sunday. Rashee Rice played in the first meeting, but he was not as involved in KC’s offense as he has been recently. By all accounts, the Chiefs are a better team now than they were six weeks ago, when these same two teams dueled at Arrowhead.

Extra Rest – I am not in the business of making excuses for this team. They ran out of those weeks ago. But I am in the business of looking at situations based on the facts and then determining if there is any impact of those facts. And the fact of the matter for these two teams is that Kansas City is going into this game with about 45 hours more rest than the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs wrapped up around 11pm on Saturday, while the Bills finished their game around 8pm on Monday. Not an excuse if the Bills come out and play poorly, but something to remember as to why the Bills could be shorthanded this week.

With an extra 45 hours would players like Benford have been able to play? Will there be enough time for Taron Johnson to clear concussion protocol before the game? We will see. While the Chiefs do have the disadvantage of travel, they will certainly take an extra two days of rest. Especially at this time of the season where nearly every player is dealing with an injury or aggravation of sorts and these games become more and more an issue of pain management.

Finally on the Road – Maybe I am naive to the impact of travel, or I am giving the Chiefs too much credit, but the Chiefs having to come here is not moving the needle for me as much as other fans and media outlets this week. The Buffalo Bills have no problem traveling to Arrowhead and winning the past two regular seasons. And, in their last playoff game there, Josh Allen played the best game of his career, which should have resulted in a win.

Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs have never played a true road playoff game. Although discounting a Super Bowl against Tom Brady and the Bucs in Tampa Bay’s own stadium is a little odd. Mahomes and the Chiefs have played three neutral sight Super Bowls, winning two of them. This is the first time they will have to travel for a “regular” playoff game, which does bring some new challenges to the team.

Flying out for Super Bowl week is much different than flying out on Saturday before a game. The Chiefs are the current Super Bowl champions, so you’ll have to excuse me for not thinking that they are going to step into a visiting stadium and just crap the bed. Make no mistake about it, it is an advantage for the Bills to finally seed higher than the Chiefs in the playoffs, but that alone will not be the reason they win. Much like the Bengals ran their mouths last year about “refunds” after beating the Bills, expect to hear lots of noise about the “first road playoff game” if the Chiefs come out on top in this one, they certainly have been using it as a rallying cry.

Prediction

Buffalo Bills 27 Kansas City Chiefs 22. The last two outings between these clubs have been low scoring and lacking in the excitement department after “13 Seconds”. I think this game will match the intensity of previous playoff games between these two. A Chiefs victory would not surprise me with the rash of defensive injuries the Bills are dealing with this week. But, when it comes down to it, I cannot pick Josh Allen to lose this football game. As I said earlier, he simply cannot. Go Bills!

Featured Image Credit: Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports