Best & Worst Case Scenarios for Bills Picks: Rounds 1-4

Everyone who has ever worked in sports writing does one of these. So, I thought it was my time to put a little spice on it. The Buffalo Bills have 11 picks and we aren’t going to be like the 2019 three first-round-pick Raiders and miss on all three. This team isn’t going to go silent into the night! This is our Draftdepedence Day!

Round 1, Pick 28 – BEST: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know the looks I’m getting as I write this.“Griffin is using the same pick as everyone elses but we’re dreaming because he ain’t falling yous guy”. Yes, my friends, I do agree with the analysts, even though, in my debut article, I said Chop Robinson would be the best first round pick IF he fell to 28. Odds are Brandon Beane will trade up to at least the 20th pick for a Wide Receiver. Should Brian Thomas Jr. have some sort of medical issue or the league doesn’t buy into his boom or bust ceiling, then I believe we can, and should, be the guy we trade up for.

“Brian Thomas […] I think he’s gonna be a Buffalo Bill, y’all”

Malik Nabers called his shot on LSU teammate Brian Thomas Jr.’s landing spot last month 👀

🎥: Malik Nabers/IG Live https://t.co/aMRQlR4kdp pic.twitter.com/7QjgHBDg9o

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) April 4, 2024

He was overshadowed by Malik Nabers at LSU. However, given his size and production (albeit in a small sample size), he is the complete package. He ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 6’4” and 209 lbs, that is DK Metcalf-level of freak athleticism. His sharp turns and route running aren’t as much of a problem as some draft analysts lead you to believe. He can run a decent route tree for a guy with his size, speed, and limited experience. Also, with Stefon Diggs gone, he is exactly the kind of upgrade the Buffalo Bills need in a deep threat; big bodied with go up and get it ability and speed.

Round 1, Pick 28 – WORST: Cooper DeJean, S/CB, Iowa

Cooper DeJean is a fine prospect. Personally, he reminds me of a young Harrison Smith, but therein lies the problem. Smith was a fantastic safety for about six to seven straight years, earning six Pro Bowl nods and two All-Pro Honors (one First Team, one Second Team). He embodies everything the Bills would want in a safety; he’s great in zone coverage, hard hitting, and quite a good signal caller from the backend, like Jordan Poyer. This is exactly the reason we can’t have Cooper DeJean.

Harrison Smith was taken in the 2012 NFL Draft one pick behind our current pick in this year’s draft. That may not scare you, but it should. Safety is a very popular position to snap up in the backend of drafts. The Bengals and Vikings drafted back-to-back Safeties with the last two first round picks in the 2022 NFL Draft. That started a run on safeties in the second round.

It’s not a terrible thing to get a Safety in the first round, if that’s your absolute top need. For this season’s Buffalo Bills though, it’s not at all. We have about four other positions that need to be looked at before we fully address Safety. The Defensive Tackle and Edge Rusher rooms could be younger and they need more Wide Receivers and Running Backs in general. We have a lot of needs still for a team that says we’re contending. Safety is just one we can’t do in the first round if we’re seriously trying to contend. It’s not you Cooper, it’s Us. No hard feelings, right?

Round 2, Pick 60 – BEST: T’Vondre Sweat, DT, Texas

This team is a serious defensive line short of winning a championship. Let’s just face facts, when it comes to pressure and sack production, the Buffalo Bills aren’t exactly on the top of the list in the minds of analysts and fans alike. We have a consistent problem in the middle of our defensive line that was here long before Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones. We don’t have a pure bull rusher on our interior. T’Vondre Sweat looks like he possibly could be the best pure bull rusher in this class by a mile.

At 6’4” and 362 lbs, Sweat is not your average bull rusher in the NFL. Most teams and analysts will (and have) been putting him as a NT because of his size. With sneaky athleticism and size rivaling Mark Henry, T’Vondre makes an oversized, overpowered bull rusher. During the Senior Bowl, he continually ran every guard tackle and center he went up against into the ground. He attacks his assignment with an almost animal-like aggressiveness not typically seen in prospects of this era. Brandon Beane and Company have emphasized their need for defensive line help and I believe I’ve found the perfect X-Factor for that unit.

Round 2, Pick 60 – WORST: Devontez Walker, WR, UNC

For some reason this year, Devontez Walker has been in all the three round mocks I’ve seen across all platforms. Devontez Walker is the perfect example of a flash-bang receiver. He had one or two flashes in him, one or two big bangs that blind you. But, after that’s over, everything is back to normal. He impresses when it comes to pure raw athleticism. Besides that, not much else intrigues me or should intrigue the Buffalo Bills.

Y’all remember Stevie Johnson, right? Imagine him, but with oven mitts for hands. Devontez Walker has all the talent and raw power to be one hell of an X receiver that would blind defenses for longer then a split second. When the Senior Bowl came around, he was one of the leading receivers coming out of college. One who had the most to prove when it came to his technical skills and hand stability. Sadly, he gave scouts more questions than answers. He left Mobile having made drop after drop and getting blown up on more than one occasion. Devontez is a short straw that I pray the Bills don’t get stuck pulling.

Round 4, Pick 128 – BEST: Sione Vaki, S, Utah

Sione Vaki was a utility knife, two-way player at Utah, playing – and excelling – at Running Back and Safety. Obviously, when you get drafted, you can only play one position; there is no flex slot, like in an NFL fantasy league. Sione made the best choice and chose Safety. Realistically, he is a jackknife DB who, if he got his weight up a little bit, could play big nickel/undersized Linebacker like Poyer used to do. Sione Vaki is following the long history of Polynesian powerhouses at the position in the NFL, like Steelers Hall of Famer Troy Polamalu and 49ers Pro Bowl Safety Talanoa Hufanga.

He has all the same physical traits as the two aforementioned players, and knows exactly how to adapt these tools to the pro level. While there are some concerns about his man coverage skills and size, his speed and versatility more than make up for it. The late Raiders owner Al Davis once said, “you can’t teach speed”. Sione can turn on the jets as a with his RB speed and quick feet.

Everyone in the league knows McDermott loves his versatile defenders. Vaki thrived in the slot as a big nickel, who could bully receivers at the line and negate any separation moves initiated at the point of attack. Even if these attributes don’t make Sione Vaki a viable threat on the backend, he could become our new Special Teams demon! Either way you look at Sione Vaki, he’s a damn fine player with a bright future and would bring a level of maturity to a blossoming rookie class.

Round 4, Pick 128 – WORST: Blake Corum, RB, Michigan

In my previous article, I discussed Brandon Beane not drafting a Running Back within the first four rounds. I’m here to tell you this is exactly the pick I could see Brandon Beane making, at this exact spot as well. Blake Corum isn’t a bad prospect by any stretch of the imagination. But he isn’t the back this team needs, value wise. He is valued as a third round pick with a second round ceiling. According to ESPN’s Jordan Reid, an NFC scout director said “I see a lot of Kenneth Walker III in him”. Blake is a great prospect and would be a great fit on any other team besides the Bills.

The Buffalo Bills need to find that Frank Gore/Zack Moss type of power back they had in the past. We’ve had a few failed attempts (i.e. Leonard Fournette, Damian Harris, and Latavius Murray). Blake Corum is the opposite of that. He’s a downhill three-down cut back, with exceptional burst for a guy his size. Value wise, Running Back has taken a free fall since the days of Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, and LeSean McCoy. These guys got paid big bucks to do exactly what current day running backs do. However, this league is very pass-centric now. Spending a fourth round pick on one doesn’t make any sense, especially for a team who has their franchise heir apparent in James Cook. Blake, you’re a great guy, but we are just looking for something else. Let’s be frienemies?

Round 4, Pick 133 – BEST: Elijah Jones, CB, Boston College

Cornerback depth is now an issue in Buffalo! Just kidding, but we have lost three corners that have been with us for a while. Dane Jackson, Siran Neal, and Tre’Davious White all went elsewhere in free agency. This writer wishes them all the best (except you Siran, you broke my heart.)

For some, the fourth round may be a little bit too early to solve the CB depth problem, but readers should remember Future All-Pro CB Tariq Woolen was taken only two picks after Khalil Shakir in the fifth round in 2022. Diamonds tend to hide in the rough and the fourth round is as rough as it gets. Everyone is itching to find short-term developmental projects like Taron Johnson or Gabe Davis, and they’re not afraid to trade up to do it.

Elijah Jones is a prospect who stands out to me personally as a draft analyst. He isn’t the most highly touted prospect coming out of Boston College. But he is a future shutdown corner in the making. A late entrant into the Senior Bowl, Elijah Jones flashed solid man and zone coverage abilities and has the downhill speed to catch up in pursuit. Athleticism, length, and speed are all part of his game, and he is a wrap up tackler with a nose for the football. Despite weight concerns and jam up issues at the line of scrimmage, Jones is the exact type of corner McDermott and Beane look for when building a defense.

In baseball terms, he’s a switch hitter who can hit above his weight class, despite not taking some business decisions hits. Talk about versatility, this draft is loaded with it! If anyone had concerns with finding a good CB prospect who will likely be available in the later rounds, look no further. I give you Elijah Jones! Now take a bow Elijah and put that Buffalo Bills draft hat on, you got a plane to catch.

Round 4, Pick 133 – WORST: Payton Wilson, LB, NC State

In Buffalo, we’ve dealt with nagging injury bugs that ravaged two potential Super Bowl-caliber teams (the 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 seasons). Notable starters and depth pieces alike started dropping like flies in both seasons: Matt Milano, Josh Allen (who didn’t miss a game but was nagged by a UCL strain), Tre’Davious White (both seasons), DaQuan Jones, Kaiir Elam, Damar Hamlin, Christian Benford, Gabe Davis, Terrell Bernard, and both All-Pro Safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. When you read all of those names, you can grasp how the Bills came up short in the playoffs. By the time we got there, we were calling up more than two practice squad guys just to make ends meet.

With this philosophy of depth diving in the later rounds, starting in the fourth, picks become expendable but not valueless. Many invaluable players have been drafted beyond Day 1, like Stefon Diggs, Tariq Woolen, and (bear with me) the apparent GOAT, seven-time Super Bowl Champion Tom Brady. (I may need a break to go drain my mouth with bleach.) Thus, the need for meticulous planning with each pick, regardless of placement.

According to Muki Hawkins, Payton Wilson met with the Buffalo Bills at the NFL combine. No other reports have come out about us meeting with him. So it’s safe to assume they don’t view linebacker as a necessity this draft. Especially after already drafting Dorian Williams the year before and signing former Eagles LB Nicholas Morrow to a one-year deal. Not much can be said on Payton himself, since he most likely won’t see our turf as a friendly, but he would be the prototypical Matt Milano understudy… if we didn’t draft Dorian the year before. Brandon Beane knows where to attack and when, Bills Mafia should be confident in our Linebackers just as he is.

Overview

Whether you’re an offense-first person or a “defense wins championships” kinda guy, you’re going to get your fill this draft. There are a bevy of fresh prospects ready, willing, and able to contribute immediately next season. Stefon Diggs being traded changes a lot for worried Buffalo Bills fans clutching onto their boxes of tissues in the bathroom. But, for this level-headed writer, I gladly welcome this chaos.

This year presents a one-time opportunity to reload our ranks so fast and quick, we’ll make the Texans look like the inept-ass Giants. In his eight years as our General Manager, Brandon Beane has never had over 10 picks in the draft and kept all of them. He has been given a golden ticket to fast-track our reloading process. So buckle up Bills fans, we have a draft to catch!

Featured Image Credit: Jonathan Mailhes