Jenna’s Divisional Round Outlook: #2 Bills vs. #3 Chiefs

My dad and I were settling into our seats as he turned the TV to CBS. It was Christmas Day —Week 16 — and it meant that, not only we could enjoy the holiday together, but also a Bills win. Buffalo had beaten the Los Angeles Chargers just the other day. The Kansas City Chiefs were set to face the Las Vegas Raiders at home in a matchup that most would have picked the reigning Super Bowl Champions to win. However, I was feeling that there’d be an upset even before the game began. I turned to my dad and said something along the lines of:

“You know if the Chiefs were to lose to the Raiders, and the Bills were to win out and take the division, the Bills could get the second seed!”

My dad would not entertain the idea, believing that I was getting too ahead of myself and that the Bills still had a lot to take care of. He wasn’t wrong. The Bills needed Miami to lose another game, and Buffalo needed to take care of its own business. Although I can tell you I truly believed it could happen, I can’t say I’m not shocked that it did.

The Buffalo Bills have come a long way from where they were in Week 13. If you had told me then that Buffalo would be hosting Kansas City in the divisional round of the playoffs, I would’ve called you absolutely nuts!

What does this mean to the Bills? Well, their regular season and postseason matches with the Chiefs could not be more lopsided. In the Josh Allen era, the Bills are 3-1 in the regular season against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, but they are 0-2 in the playoffs. Out of all of those games, only one of them took place in Orchard Park. That was the 2020 game, which occurred without fans. The Chiefs won that one.

Both playoff games involved inevitable trips to Arrowhead Stadium, which ended in disappointing losses suffered at the brilliant hands of QB Patrick Mahomes. A patient Josh Allen would have waited until the 2024 regular season to bring the rivalry back to where it started in Orchard Park. However, coming away with a five-game win streak at the end of 2023 to save his season, deserves the right to finally host the man who has ended it many times before. To make things even better, this game will be Patrick Mahomes’ first career road playoff gamer. You heard that right. Again, what does this mean to the Bills? It means everything. 

In January of 2022, Josh Allen left the field having seemingly won the game, advancing the Bills to the AFC Championship. In just four minutes and 28 seconds of game time, he was deemed to have lost. The “13 seconds” game is fresh on all of our minds as we prepare for another playoff match against Kansas City, but there is hope that this time the outcome will be different.

Matchups to Watch

Buffalo Bills LBs vs. Kansas City Chiefs Offense

The Bills are getting injured at the worst possible time. Not only are their starting linebackers hurt, but their depth is as well. Starting LB Tyrel Dodson is working his way back into the lineup,Terrel Bernard could miss the game with an ankle injury, and Baylon Spector is out with a back injury. Neither Bernard or Spector have practiced this week. (Though HC Sean McDermott said that Bernard is a game-time decision. Bernard being available would change the way the Bills defense plays.) This is especially concerning, given the level of competition that the Bills will be facing. QB Patrick Mahomes and TE Travis Kelce are two players that you will gameplan for, and you may want your best linebackers to play. Who will replace Bernard and Spector if they are unable to suit up?

Last week, Buffalo signed AJ Klein to the practice squad and elevated him to the active roster to provide insurance. When Spector came out of the game, AJ came in for him. Shortly after, Bernard left the game on a cart and Klein was then his replacement at middle linebacker. Rookie LB Dorian Williams stepped in by his side. I expect to see AJ Klein elevated again, and Dorian will likely be his running mate.

Keep in mind, the Bills did not have DT DaQuan Jones the last time they played the Chiefs. His presence should make the linebackers’ jobs a little easier.

Bills OL vs. Chiefs DL

Throughout the season, the Buffalo Bills have had one of the top offensive lines in the NFL in both pass protection and run blocking. They’ll face a daunting test on Sunday as they face a Kansas City Chiefs defensive line that ranked first in sack percentage and second in total sacks. The Chiefs declared one of their starting defensive tackles, Derrick Nnadi, out with a triceps injury. I am unsure who will take his place. DT Chris Jones (10.5 sacks) primarily garners all the attention, but defensive ends George Karlaftis (10.5), Charles Omenihu (7), and Mike Danna (6.5) will pose problems, too.

Prediction

I’m going to be honest. I had a hard time coming up with predictions this week. You all know how superstitious I am, and I can feel the gravity of this matchup. Some things are better left unsaid. What I can say is that I expect this game to shift the narrative. Whichever quarterback wins will be the one who dominates the headlines Monday morning, and for the rest of the off-season. The Allen-Mahomes rivalry is so fun for fans of other teams. But, for fans of the Chiefs and Bills, this means so much more. They have been neck and neck in the regular season, but it’s been the playoffs that sets them apart. QB Josh Allen has a chance to change his legacy.

Conclusion

For the fourth straight year, the Buffalo Bills are heading to the divisional round! In that span, the Bills have only reached the AFC Championship game once. It is only fitting that Josh Allen must pass Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to do so. Assuming that the Bills have most of their usual starters on defense, I can see this game being dominated by the defenses of each team. If Bernard is not able to play, I expect the Chiefs to attack the middle of the field and exploit whichever backup is in the game. However, knowing that the Bills are at home could bode well for their defense if the crowd noise kicks in. Either way I am certain that this game will be low scoring. 

I said my goodbyes last week, but I will do it again. I hope this isn’t the last article that I will write for Jenna’s Outlook. But just know that I’ve thoroughly enjoyed improving my football knowledge and writing skills while being a part of this project. If there’s anything to be grateful for, it’s that I’ve had an audience to share it with. Enjoy the game this weekend and I’ll talk to you at some point!

Featured Image Credit: AP Photo/Ed Zurga