Pundits Beware: Are the Bills this year’s Chiefs?

The NFL off-season and preseason are great times to sit back and relax, spend time with the kids, and engage in endless Twitter keyboard battles and media overreactions. Oh, that’s not what you had planned — got it. Apparently, the Buffalo Bills are going to take a step back in 2023, according to multiple NFL personalities. If you’re familiar with the NFL multiverse, you probably already know who I’m talking about; voices such as Colin Cowherd, Nick Wright, Bart Scott, and Keyshawn Johnson ring through the ears of many Bills fans. 

Is there any fact to the media’s pessimism? It’s true that the Buffalo Bills were eliminated in the divisional round of the playoffs for two years in a row. However, I, and many other Bills devotees, don’t believe that their trajectory is of such a steep decline as others may suggest.

Perhaps the league should remember how they treated another certain team last offseason after their disappointing playoff exit. Now, as a forewarning, this is not some crystal ball prediction or an astrology chart reading. I am simply just laying out the eerie similarities.

Your 2023 Buffalo Bills are the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs, and I am here to give you three reasons why.

1.) The Division is “Heating Up”

2022 AFC West

On March 8, 2022, the Seattle Seahawks agreed to trade former Super Bowl-winning quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos in exchange for a package that would shake up the entire NFL landscape, and the perspective of the AFC West. The divisional stockpiling didn’t stop there, though.

A couple of days later, the Los Angeles Chargers traded for Chicago Bears OLB Khalil Mack, and signed cornerback J.C. Jackson in free agency. Then, superstar WR Davante Adams was traded from the Green Bay Packers to the Las Vegas Raiders. That was an intense week; does this sound familiar?

From there, the AFC West was supposed to be a “bloodbath”. Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs lay atop the division as the reigning division champions, but it was easy to assume that they would have a tough time repeating. Some people even took it further to say that they would miss the playoffs. In July of 2022, Bart Scott made that insane claim as a guest on ESPN’s First Take — in front of then-Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman. The show host, Molly Qerim, asked him to elaborate on his opinion. The way that Bart answered turned the heads of his table guests:

“Oh, they’re at the top, but I think they’re under high distress… You talk about the division. They got two great pass-rushers to be able to close the show… you know they’ve closed the gap in talent. Listen, I think you guys could be in trouble, man, I do! I think that Herbert is a star, I think that Carr finally got a full array of weapons to be able to match all fire-power-wise, and I think the achilles’ heel is going to be your defense because I think maybe you have the fourth-best defense within the division. It could be a reset year where you guys miss the playoffs.” 

Bart Scott on the 2022 Kansas City Chiefs (July 2022/First Take)

2023 AFC East

Now, I will ask you again: does it sound familiar? This is exactly what they’re saying about the Buffalo Bills and the AFC East in 2023.

The New York Jets traded for Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, just as the Denver Broncos did with Russell Wilson. (And, to make things even creepier, Nathaniel Hackett has links with all three of those teams.)

The Miami Dolphins traded for Rams CB Jalen Ramsey, who unfortunately suffered a meniscus injury during training camp (we wish him the best) and brought in defensive mastermind Vic Fangio, who once served as the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos. Similar to the 2022 Los Angeles Chargers, the Fins loaded up on defense. 

The New England Patriots, in some ways, didn’t neglect the offense. They added Super Bowl-winning WR Juju Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, and RB Ezekiel Elliott in free agency, and almost made a move for star WR DeAndre Hopkins, who ultimately went to the Tennessee Titans. Let’s not forget that the Head Coach of the Las Vegas Raiders was once a part of the Patriots coaching staff. Are you starting to see what I’m seeing? 

Off-season additions aren’t always what they are cracked up to be, and we saw that play out in the 2022 NFL regular season. Needless to say, NFL analysts should be cautious with how they describe the AFC East. It is okay to say that it’ll be tough, because it will be. The Bills have struggled to take down at least one of their divisional rivals in the past two seasons. It may be no different in 2023, but it would be silly to say that the Buffalo Bills will finish in third or fourth place. Just as it was silly to say the Kansas City Chiefs would fall in 2022.

2.) Quarterback “Regression” & Wide Receiver “Drama”

Patrick Mahomes & Tyreek Hill

Perhaps one of the biggest 2022 off-season moves was made by the Miami Dolphins. On March 23, 2022, ESPN Senior Writer Adam Schefter reported that the Kansas City Chiefs traded WR Tyreek Hill to the 305. Miami reworked his contract to offer him a massive four-year deal worth up to $120 million dollars. Unfortunately, Hill and the Chiefs couldn’t work out a contract that pleased the star wide receiver. Then, came the snowball effect.

Was Tyreek Hill unhappy in Kansas City? Was there some bad-blood between him and MVP-winning quarterback Patrick Mahomes? Those questions lingered until The Cheetah came forward:

“If teams are gonna give us favorable one-on-one matches against their best corner, I don’t see why teams don’t utilize their best receiver. And that’s where probably like me and the Chiefs fell apart right there. When I’m like, ‘yo, I don’t mean to talk or be a diva in some situation, but can I see the pill some time, please?’ Just give me the ball, please.”

Tyreek Hill on the reason for his KC departure (via Shanna McCarriston/CBS Sports)

He mentioned that he talked to both HC Andy Reid and Mahomes, but things didn’t iron out. Instead, he opted to take his talents to Miami where he’d be catching passes from a “more accurate” Tua Tagovailoa. From there, NFL analysts began to ponder whether Patrick Mahomes would be the same without his trusty secret weapon. He still had superstar TE Travis Kelce, but who’s to say he can’t be double-teamed? Besides, the Chiefs replaced Hill with a bunch of average wide receivers; this should be easy!

Mahomes’ 2021 season stats and production weren’t as flashy as many might have expected, and the departure of Tyreek Hill led some members of the media to believe that he would take an extra step back in 2022. First Take’s Stephen A. Smith theorized that there would be a “drop-off” without the Chiefs quarterback’s favorite target.

Well, Mahomes was just fine. He even won his second MVP award, leaving little to no doubt that he is still “that dude” and the undisputed best player in the league. Hill also found success in Miami as he put up career numbers with Tagovailoa at the helm. You can’t get any more of a win-win scenario than that.

Josh Allen & Patrick Mahomes: A Comparison

Josh Allen & Stefon Diggs

Meanwhile, Josh Allen is being underrated at this moment. Sure, he finished in the Top 10 of the NFL Players’ Top 100 list, but he is “behind” the likes of Joe Burrow, and even Jalen Hurts. The turnovers are likely to be setting Allen apart from the other top quarterbacks in the league. However, coming from a pass-heavy offense with elite talent only supplemented by WR Stefon Diggs, he is bound to have more interceptions and fumbles.

I am in no way knocking on the accomplishments of Burrow and Hurts — they are both highly talented — but there is a difference between having top-notch wide receivers and offensive line talent, and having to carry your offense on your back for at least 17 weeks.

To be clear, Josh Allen did not have a regression year in 2022. Having played one less game than in recent seasons, of course he was short on passing yards. However, he was also playing with an ulnar collateral ligament tear for half of the season, which you can imagine takes a toll on a quarterback’s accuracy and throwing angle. If you’d like more insight into Josh’s injury, check out this article published by Buffalo Fanatics’ very own Alex Lucci:

Josh Allen Elbow Injury Explained

As an added layer, the relationship between Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen has come into question. Much of the media’s skepticism came from a video clip of the two, in which Diggs threw his arms up at Allen in dissatisfaction.

Surely the NFL world has remained calm after seeing this. Months of speculation and small press conference comments, was cleared up when mandatory minicamp arrived. Or was it? The Stefon Saga re-ignited when he missed the first day of mandatory OTAs. The flames were further fanned, even after he showed up the next day.

I guess what I am trying to say is that both Allen and Mahomes have had tempered expectations by the outside noise, accompanied by some wideout drama. What a coincidence!

3.) New Offensive Weapons in the Arsenal

Like I said previously, the Kansas City Chiefs added new offensive players to their roster in 2022. They revamped their entire wide receiver room, after the departure of Tyreek Hill, and added now-New England WR Juju Smith-Schuster and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, WR Kadarius Toney via trade, and WR Skyy Moore in the draft. Their additions ended up paying dividends, as the receiving corps led Patrick Mahomes to his second MVP and Super Bowl titles. They certainly weren’t superstars, but GM Brett Veach made some under-the-radar moves to help his franchise QB.

Now, in 2023, we are hoping that Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane did something similar, if not more impressive. With limited cap space and draft picks, ‘Big Baller Beane signed depth pieces such as WRs Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty and RBs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray in free agency, as well as drafting TE Dalton Kincaid. In addition, he shored up the interior offensive line by signing OG Connor McGovern (the other Connor McGovern) and drafting OG O’Cyrus Torrence.

A lot can be said about how the Bills handled their offensive tackle situation, but it’s clear that they have a vision for Spencer Brown, who spent all of last offseason recovering from back surgery. The depth at offensive tackle, however, may be the only problem on offense.

As you gear up for the 2023 regular season, you may find yourself trapped in the twisted claims made by the NFL media directed at our beloved Buffalo Bills. Perhaps you may even start to believe what they say. However, as BF site founder Pierre Kingpin likes to say, “remember who we have”. The NFL outsiders are oblivious to how we operate in Western New York. It is “Buffalo vs. Everybody”, but our friendly foes in Kansas City know what it’s like to be overlooked. Here’s to a very successful, and healthy, football season!

Featured Image: Kevin Sabitus/Associated Press