Buffalo Bulletin: The Dorsey Vs. Daboll Debate

The position of ‘offensive coordinator’ is one of the most ambiguous in the NFL. On one team, you may as well be a remote positional assistant; On others you may run the franchise. In Buffalo, however, you’re responsible for maintaining one of the most unique talents in the NFL, and keeping everything moving around him. That was the task Brian Daboll set up, and it was the one Ken Dorsey stepped into a year ago. It was a move met with critical acclaim.

A year later, and people aren’t convinced. Now, to say that the Buffalo Bills’ 2022 season went up in flames is a colossal understatement. It ended so brutally, so tragically, and so suddenly, that every Bills fan on the planet was left with a bad taste in their mouth. After a hot start, the fans felt that Dorsey showed a significant drop-off, and he failed to meet the expectations that were set.

Ken Dorsey: Destined To Disappoint

For the previous two years, the discussion of Daboll’s replacement had been on the table. Following 2022, some are convinced we still don’t have him yet. ‘Bills Mafia’ called for Ken Dorsey’s head, whilst Brian Daboll was celebrated as the NFL’s Coach of the Year.

But Daboll was always going to leave Buffalo. Every great offensive coordinator gets the offer eventually. Head Coaching opportunities are exceedingly rare for even the most competent and qualified candidates but, from the moment Josh Allen broke out, Daboll was destined to run an NFL franchise. Keeping him was never an option.

To believe there would be anyone who could step in, seamlessly, and immediately improve upon an offense that has earned it’s creator the most coveted job in the NFL is a fallacy. We cannot believe that Daboll was both excellent and also easily replaceable. We cannot believe that he was both terrible and also find Dorsey’s season disappointing. Truth often lies somewhere in the middle.

We expected success, but we cannot demand perfection. Truly, fans set themselves up for disappointment. Dorsey couldn’t have hoped to fill the rose-tinted shoes left by the ghost of Brian Daboll.

A Brief Statistical Comparison

So, let’s be more measured than we were back on that cold January evening, as the walls collapsed around us. Truly, how much worse was Ken Dorsey than his predecessor? Was he worse at all?

Brian Daboll

To begin that comparison, we must look at all the relevant information we can. We’ll start with the sample of success left behind by Daboll. Here is how his offense with the Buffalo Bills ranked out in the major categories through his tenure.

Year	Total Yds/Game (Rank)	Pass Yds/Game (Rank)	Rush Yds/Game (Rank)	Pts/Game (Rank)
2018	298.6 (30th)	174.6 (31st)	124.0 (9th)	16.8 (30th)
2019	330.2 (24th)	201.8 (26th)	128.4 (8th)	19.6 (T23rd)
2020	396.4 (T2nd)	288.8 (3rd)	107.7 (20th)	31.3 (2nd)
2021	381.9 (5th)	252.0 (9th)	129.9 (6th)	28.4 (3rd)

Note the drastic jump in offensive output from 2019 to 2020. Was that due solely to a massive leap made by Brian Daboll, or was there perhaps some other thing? Was there a more significant factor to his success than Daboll simply becoming an incredible OC overnight?

Perhaps an improvement in personnel at the most import position?

No?

You can see when Josh Allen broke out. It was the moment that truly turned the franchise into contenders. We now know, after the 2022 season, Josh Allen showed that his success wasn’t dependent on the offense being run by Brian Daboll. Josh Allen is an elite quarterback, regardless of who calls his plays. Daboll does deserve some credit for his impact on Allen’s growth, but Josh’s process is his own.

Truly, Brian Daboll was a massive success in those two seasons for the Buffalo Bills, and he should be remembered as such, but it’s not all he was.

We cannot look at Daboll as a two-season OC who did nothing but excel. It would be dishonest. He was qualified and capable but, until he got an elite QB to work with, his offense didn’t score higher than 9th-worst in the NFL. Once he had that piece, things changed. It is those two seasons we must compare with Ken Dorsey’s to make an accurate measurement.

Ken Dorsey

In 2020, Daboll’s offense was T2nd in YPG (396.4), 3rd in pass yards (288.8), 20th in rush yards (107.7), and 2nd in PPG (31.3). In 2021, he gave us 5th in YPG (381.9), 9th in pass yards (252.0), 6th in rush yards (129.9), and 3rd in PPG (28.4).

Now, let’s compare his work to that of Ken Dorsey.

Year	Total Yds/Game (Rank)	Pass Yds/Game (Rank)	Rush Yds/Game (Rank)	Pts/Game (Rank)
2022	397.6 (2nd)	258.1 (7th)	139.5 (7th)	28.4 (2nd)

Understand that these are the most basic metrics for determining offensive success. They’re not a completed puzzle, but the stats serve as an excellent basis of an argument for or against team success over the course of a season.

Judging by the numbers, it would seem as though the Bills offense was more efficient in 2022 than the previous year. So, what caused the anti-Dorsey movement? Whilst running an elite and productive passing game, Dorsey earned criticism for misuse of weapons, inability to spread the field, and a lack of short-game.

Statistically though, Ken Dorsey was a phenomenal success in 2022. He was crucified for his inability or unwillingness to play the short game, yet the Bills 3rd down conversion improved to league-best (50.3%). Still, the prevailing narrative is that his inexperience and lack of creativity cost the team dearly. How much truth does that statement really hold? After all, numbers don’t lie, but they can be easily misrepresented.

2022 In Review

You see, Ken Dorsey entered the booth with a masterclass in Week 1 of the season. The reigning Super Bowl champion L.A. Rams were one of the toughest defenses in the league, and Dorsey debuted in style. The offense was well-planned, had wrinkles, made good adjustments, and ultimately blew them out of the water. The calls were creative and driven.

In Week 2, something similar happened. Buffalo crushed the Tennessee Titans 41-7, and we all started to believe this was what we were getting. It set an unattainable standard.

Week 3 delivered something different. Call it regression to the mean; Buffalo seemed too good to be true and when they met the Dolphins’ home turf, they stumbled. It wasn’t a loss due to some phenomenal game from the Miami defense, but constant errors and miscues from our own exhausted personnel. The frustration was palpable. We felt it, saw it on the faces of our players, and watched Ken Dorsey embody us all with his outburst.

Week 3, 2022	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins
Total Yards (Per Play)	497 (5.5)	212 (5.4)
Time of Possession	40:40	19:20
Points	19	21

The offense moved the ball but couldn’t finish drives, and wound up losing on the most shocking of mistakes. From there, the story of the season went from an epic to a tragedy.

Season Summary

It’s difficult to say, considering the season resulted with the Bills going 13-3 and losing their 3 games by a combined total of 8 points, but it’s true. Buffalo faced issues on offense for a large stretch of the remainder of the year. Josh Allen’s UCL injury derailed our passing game, and the offense had to adjust around it. We can make the argument that Dorsey failed to do it well enough to keep the unit on track, but the team continued to score effectively.

There is only one definitive spot on the offense where we saw true regression: Red zone touchdown percentage. In 2021, with Brian Daboll on the microphone, the Bills had the league-best TD percentage with 66.3%. A drop to 9th under Dorsey put us at an even 60%.

Points per game may have stayed the same, but the biggest issue with Dorsey’s offense was the meat left on the bone. Daboll couldn’t always put himself in the best position to win, but he did win when he got there. Dorsey didn’t fail in this area, but he’s forced to live up to our perception of the last time we saw Daboll, and that’s an impossible mark to hit.

Remembering Brian Daboll

They say hindsight is 20/20, but we still look back through those rose-coloured glasses. Brian Daboll gave us some incredible offensive moments, drives, games, and seasons, but it was only perfect once.

To leave well is to be remembered fondly, and who could fault the goodbye Daboll gave us? We’ve never before seen a playoff run as incredible as the one gifted to us by Josh Allen and Brian Daboll in 2021/22. For Daboll, two of the greatest offensive performances in NFL history was his farewell.

But, in the same season that saw him hired away, his offense managed to lose 9-6 to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. They managed four separate losses that season that scored lower than Ken Dorsey’s worst performance. Daboll’s head was perceived to be on the chopping block not only by fans, but by the NFL media-scape as well. By the time the playoffs were over, he was the most coveted candidate in the NFL.

Perception Is Everything

Don’t misunderstand me. Brian Daboll was one of the best offensive coordinators in the league, and he deserved his head coaching shot. The point here is that stats will be buried when stood next to our emotions. The reality of what we’re seeing will consistently be swayed or altered by how we feel about it. To be truly objective we must look at the information given, both with and without context, and accept what we find.

Our last memory of Ken Dorsey was a snowy winter’s day where our offense floundered, our defense crumbled, and our stars couldn’t lift us out of the holes we were dug into. Is that the way we should look at his successful season? If we’re to remember all of our formers by the worst games of their careers, the Hall of Fame would be empty.

OC: The Fan-Favourite Scapegoat

So, understanding that both Ken Dorsey and Brian Daboll gave us incredible seasons, and that both had monumental lows that left fans reeling, it begs a fresh question. Why do we put it all on them? Of all positions, why blame the OC?

The first line of this piece contained everything we need to know on the topic. The position is ambiguous.

We aren’t privy to much of what happens within our favourite franchise, no matter how educated or insightful we may try to be. A coach of 30 years may not understand who said what, who made which decision, or who is responsible for whatever failures. Rarely do even the most well-connected of insiders find themselves privy to the finer details. Rarer still is the occasion where we fans get to know what’s truly happening.

Roster issues? OC should have fixed that. Bad outcome on a play? OC must have called it.

When it goes wrong, we refuse to blame the players we know and love, and instead place blame on those most invisible and nonspecific of candidates. A lineman who we don’t trust. A receiver who hasn’t proven themselves. Our offensive coordinator, who works behind the scenes and is never infallible.

Year 2 of Ken Dorsey

Perhaps the job of a coordinator isn’t to run the offense, but to be a convenient scapegoat to avoid addressing the actual issues. It’s easy to look at any unit and blame the man running it for it’s failure, but the Bills were indisputably one of the best offenses in the NFL whilst being run by an OC who had never done the job before, and it continued to excel under him.

Credit Josh Allen all you like; Dorsey was productive, effective, and commanded the offense well, even when the QB was injured and part of the game was taken away from us. Now a healthy Allen will lead this offense, perhaps the best he’s ever had, to new heights. With Dorsey’s rookie year under his belt, and a bevy of new weapons to play with, we should be very excited for 2023.

Featured Image Credit: AP Photo/Adrian Kraus, Jon Sure/USA Today; Composite By Iestyn Harris

Research And Content Credit: Zach Vaughn