3 Keys To Victory: Week 1 – New York Jets

The New York Jets played a bigger role in the downfall of the 2022 Buffalo Bills than any of us could have realized at the time. Sure, there’s the divisional loss that meant we missed out on the first-round bye in the playoffs, but the hit that injured Josh Allen’s UCL and handcuffed our offense for the rest of the year was a bigger factor. The “New-Look, New York” Jets, led by Aaron Rodgers, hope to start their season off right in prime time. On Monday Night Football, we’ll aim to play spoiler. Follow this weekly series, as we find the “Keys To Victory” in every Bills game.

A lot has changed so far in 2023, so let’s take a fresh look at our division rivals.

Meet The (New) New York Jets

The immense turnover in New Jersey this offseason wasn’t a surprise, but perhaps the significance of the changes was. We’ll briefly touch on what’s new here, opening with the big hitter.

Offense

On April 24th, the Packers officially agreed to terms with the New York Jets on a trade for quarterback Aaron Rodgers, vaulting them from the basement of the AFC into playoff contention. They sent the 13th, 42nd, and 170th overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, as well as a conditional second-round pick in next year’s draft (which becomes New York’s first pick if Aaron Rodgers takes 65% or more of the offensive snaps on the season). They received the 15th and 207th picks, alongside Rodgers.

It seems a hefty price, but no deal is too expensive when you have a talented roster in need of a QB. In reality, they paid hardly a pittance, and Rodgers wasn’t all they added. The team went out and found their quarterback the weapons he wanted, from favourites such as WRs Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard to fresh help in WR Mecole Hardman and RB Dalvin Cook. Though they still have a bevy of concerns on their offensive line, the Jets offense will be a step above what we saw from them in 2022.

Defense

On the other side of the ball, the Jets remained neutral at most positions. Their safeties continue to be uninspiring, as are their linebackers in coverage. Much of what they saw change from last season to this revolved around one-for-one swaps of players with similar pedigrees. Swap out DTs Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepard for Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson, and we see a net neutral. There may be either regression or progression in areas across the field, but expect it to be limited.

Keys To Victory

It’s a tall order, trying to understand a team that has yet to play a true snap, but it’s an obstacle all teams must face in Week 1. As far as information goes, the Buffalo Bills have less on their opponent than most. After that tumultuous offseason, let’s apply what we now know.

Key 1: Pressure Aaron Rodgers

We’re starting with something obvious. In 2022, Aaron Rodgers was pressured on only 18.4% of his dropbacks, good for 9th-lowest in the NFL. That same season, behind the NYJ line, Zach Wilson was pressured 4th-most at 26.6%. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills generated pressure at a mediocre 22.2% rate. Without Von Miller for Week 1, they may need to get creative to put the heat on Rodgers. Has New York made significant enough improvements to keep their shiny old QB clean? Much of the Jets’ offensive line seemed to struggle in training camp and preseason, with constant reshuffling. There’s no doubt they made the investment, but hold doubt in it’s value.

If Buffalo’s refreshed defensive line unit can generate pressure consistently, Rodgers won’t have time to let deep passes develop. By forcing them to throw short and quick, we widen the margin for error and make Rodgers rely on his still-subpar set of receivers. Those same receivers have struggled in camp as much as the offensive line has. Their QB threw the 6th-most deep pass attempts (20+ yards) last season, and mitigating that aspect of his game will be critical.

The Buffalo Bills defense of last season, ran by then-coordinator Leslie Frazier, blitzed at a gentle 19.4%; He isn’t calling the shots anymore. With head coach Sean McDermott taking over, we expect to see a substantially more aggressive defense. It’s what he known for as the defensive coordinator in Carolina. McDermott’s creative blitz packages earned him a head coaching job, and it’s high time to return to his roots. If the blitz rate does climb, as we expect, it’ll be a long night of football for Aaron Rodgers and company.

Key 2: Set Up The Deep Ball

It would be dishonest of me to say that I’m not one to mince words. I am. Frequently.

However, on this point I shall not. The New York Jets have an elite set of cornerbacks. Grabby as he may be, Sauce Gardner is extremely talented, and D.J. Reed excelled across from him last season. Their defensive line holds its own calibre of greatness also, which could make for a long day. There’s one very simple way around it…

Pass early, pass often, and pass short.

Josh Allen’s UCL injury last season derailed much of our hopes of an efficient short passing game, which has gone from luxury to necessity. He’s recovered now, and the difference will be notable. By taking advantage of the weak spots around their linebackers in coverage, we pass over the middle for short gains. Stay on schedule, taking what we can get. Feeding Trent Sherfield and Dalton Kincaid early forces New York to make adjustments. They won’t bring in their outside corners if we leave two receivers wide, opting to drop their safeties to help clog passing windows instead.

In response, Gabe Davis, Stefon Diggs, and Deonte Harty can get past their corners in one-on-one coverage and find the deep ball. Waiting for the safeties to bite and making them pay for it is critical to our offensive success.

Key 3: QB Option

One major strength of Josh Allen has always been his ability to make plays the other QB cannot. We’ve seen it time and time again, and this will be no different. Josh is elite when passing or running, so defenses have to play him as a potential ground threat at all times. But Josh is not alone in his multiple skillset any more. The tight ends are varied and capable, James Cook is an effective receiving option, and our wide receiver depth is immaculate.

Lean in, and run as many plays with an option as you can. From RPOs, to optional pre-set screens, to designed runs that Allen can check into or out of, we have more options than ever before on offense. Use them.

The New York Jets are highly capable on defense, as evidenced by last season, but by forcing them to second-guess every action, we delay their reaction time by the thinnest of margins. In the NFL, that’s all you need. Run options, vary the playbook, and find the weak spots every time.

Key Player Of The Day: RB James Cook

Join us every week this season as Iestyn Harris breaks down how the Buffalo Bills can beat their opponents!

Featured Image Credit: Adam Hunger/Associated Press