Zach’s Best Bills & NFL Bets: 2023 Player Stats

Football… is BACK!! The 2023 season is less than a month away and the anticipation is mounting. Teams are putting the finishing touches on their rosters. Fans are honing their overreactions and hot takes. And gamblers are finalizing their season-long bets. While the games have yet to be played, there are some very appealing player bets this year, both for the Buffalo Bills and across the NFL.

Now, I am more of a cautious gambler and my suggestions will (mainly) reflect that. My “usual wager” is the same as Randolph and Mortimer Duke’s in the 1983 movie “Trading Places”: $1. Why? Because, in my not so professional opinion, gambling is about minimizing loses and staying in the game for as long as possible. You may win a couple bets here and there, but how long can you stay ahead? Being able to make smaller, more calculated bets (even with not so appealing odds) is better than blowing all your money on one bet with outlandishly high odds just because “it could be the one”. (Stacking multiple calculated smaller bets into a parlay, however, is another story. But we’ll get to that when the season kicks off.)

Also, as you will see in my suggestions, I would prefer to lose a bet because someone didn’t do something rather than because they did something. (Life is too short to bet the under.)

Let’s dive in!!

*Listed betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; For different sites’ odds, check out BettingPros.com or your preferred Sportsbook site.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Over 32.5 Pass TDs (+100)

Odds Mean: Win $2 for every $1 bet

I was pleasantly surprised when I saw the line for this one. Over the past three seasons, Josh has had at least 35 passing TDs. He has thrown one less pass TD each year (he had 37 in 2020, 36 in 2021, and 35 in 2022). However, even if that trend continues in 2023, 34 would still be more than 32.5. All this to say, even basic math would dictate smashing the over here.

James Cook Over 3.5 Rush TDs (+105)

Odds Mean: Win $2.05 for every $1 bet

I know James Cook only had two rushing scores last year, but he was also the third option in the Buffalo Bills’ rushing attack (behind Josh Allen and Devin Singletary). As the presumptive RB1a, Cook should receive far more touches and, therefore, more opportunities to break a long one. Side note: Singletary, who’s not as explosive a runner as Cook, scored five rushing touchdowns as Buffalo’s RB1a in 2022.

Stefon Diggs Over 99.5 Receptions (-110), 1125.5 Rec Yds (-115), & 8.5 Rec TDs (-130)

Odds Mean: Win $1.90 for every $1 bet (Diggs Recs); Win $1.86 for every $1 bet (Diggs Rec Yds); Win $1.76 for every $1 bet (Diggs TDs)

Yes, I am taking all the overs on Diggs. Not just because he wants the ball more this year, but also because he’s had 100+ receptions and 1200+ yards each of his three years in Buffalo. And, while he had only eight TDs in 2020, he has scored 10+ TDs each of the last two years. These bets may not pay out the most money, but they’re pretty safe ones.

Gabe Davis Over 6.5 Rec TDs (+110)

Odds Mean: Win $2.10 for every $1 bet

Gabe Davis has caught 20 touchdowns in his three seasons with the Buffalo Bills (seven in 2020, six in 2021, and seven in 2022); that’s an average of 6.67 receiving touchdowns per year. Add in the plus-side odds and the fact Gabe is entering a contract year, and this becomes a very appealing bet.

Greg Rousseau Over 7.75 Sacks (+100)

Odds Mean: Win $2 for every $1 bet

Groot recorded 8.0 sacks in 2022, five of which came in his first eight games prior to his ankle injury and Von Miller’s ACL tear. That averaged out to 0.625 sacks per game with Von. Meanwhile, in his five regular season games without Von, Groot had just three sacks (0.6 sacks/game). While that might not seem like a drastic decline, he recorded two of those three sacks against the Jets in Week 14.

However, even with uncertainty surrounding when Von will return in 2023, I believe the Buffalo Bills have better DL depth this year. Groot should be in a better position to succeed with Leonard Floyd, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, and Poona Ford among others. If he comes close to his 2022 first-half production (four to five sacks) before Von returns, Rousseau should easily surpass 8.0 sacks. (Dare I say he hits double-digits?)

NFL

Aaron Rodgers Under 28.5 Pass TDs (-115)

Odds Mean: Win $1.86 for every $1 bet

Rodgers has thrown less than 26 pass TDs in four of his past six seasons. (This trend predates Davante Adams’ departure from Green Bay.) While he is a massive upgrade over last year’s Jets QBs, I don’t see him returning to his MVP form unless the team somehow prys Adams away from the Raiders.

(The Dalvin Cook signing changes nothing.)

Travis Etienne Over 950.5 Rush Yds (+100)

Odds Mean: Win $2 for every $1 bet

The third-year back out of Clemson enjoyed a breakout NFL debut in 2022, recording 1125 yards and five TDs on 220 carries. Even with the buzz surrounding rookie Tank Bigsby, Etienne should remain the feature back and get at least 951 rushing yards.

Mike Evans Over 65.5 Receptions (+105)

Odds Mean: Win $2.05 for every $1 bet

Mike Evans has been a consistent pass catcher since entering the NFL in 2014. He has caught 67+ passes every year of his career. Even staring down the barrel of a Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask-led offense, I’m confident Mike Evans will get at least 66 receptions in 2023.

Demario Davis Over 99.5 Combined Tackles (-110)

Odds Mean: Win $1.90 for every $1 bet

Now, betting on which NFL players will rack up a ton of tackles seems crazy. That’s because it probably is. (I’ll let you know if I end up in a padded room and straightjacket at the end of the season for betting on this.) However, Davis has recorded 100+ tackles in six consecutive seasons and eight out of his last 10. He has been a model of consistency and durability at the LB position for over a decade, making this the safer bet of this ludicrous category.

Other NFL Player Stat Bets to Consider

• Pass TDs: Kirk Cousins Over 28.5 (-110), Justin Fields Over 18.5 (+110)
• Rush Yds: Austin Ekeler Over 775.5 (-120), Cam Akers Over 750.5 (-110)
• Receptions: D.J. Moore Over 62.5 (-110), Terry McLaurin Over 72.5 (-110)
• Rec Yds: A.J. Brown Over 1050.5 (-110), D.J. Moore Over 800.5 (-125)
• Rec TDs: Van Jefferson Over 4.5 (+140), Juwan Johnson Over 3.5 (-110)

Then again, I could be completely wrong and your best bet is to pull a Costanza and do the total opposite of my suggestions. Either way, please gamble responsibly.

Featured Image: Getty Images