Game Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

After surviving their pre-Christmas scare against the Chargers, the Buffalo Bills will play their final regular season home game of the year against the New England Patriots with a realistic chance to clinch their sixth playoff berth in seven seasons under Sean McDermott. Let’s dive in.

The Last Five

Patriots 29 Bills 25 (2023)
Bills 35 Patriots 23 (2023)
Bills 24 Patriots 10 (2022)
Bills 47 Patriots 17 (2022 Wild Card)
Bills 33 Patriots 21 (2021)

With the Bills’ inexplicable loss to Mac Jones and the Patriots back in Week 7 still lingering, Buffalo will look to get back on track against a team that they have had a lot of success against since Tom Brady left. Sunday will be the 129th team these two teams play, with the Patriots leading the series 78-49-1.

What To Watch For: Buffalo Bills

Play Down To Opponent – It has been a common theme for the Bills in their six defeats this year, and their near-defeats as well. Buffalo has a bad tendency to play down to their opponent. They make boneheaded mistakes and allow them to hang around and win. Typically the mistakes are in the form of penalties and turnovers, as was the case last week against the Chargers. Allen threw another interception and James Cook fumbled the ball twice, losing one of them. Turnovers and penalties make all things equal. It does not matter who is 9-6 and who is 4-11, the playing field is leveled. Playing their final bottom dweller of the season, the Bills will need to avoid making the same mistakes they have made countless times this season and beat the Patriots with ease.

Diggs Nursing Something? – A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted Diggs’ lack of production since Joe Brady took over. After the Chargers game, it is not just Diggs’ production that is dwindling… It is also his playing time. Diggs played only 60% of the snaps, his fewest of the season by far — and in a close game! The lack of playing time opened up some questions on if Diggs was completely healthy. Surprisingly, Diggs was not on the injury report this week, so his usage still appears to be gameplan driven. At any week Diggs has the ability to pop off, could this be the week? He has had a ton of success against New England during his time in Buffalo, having scored a TD in his last four games against them.

What To Watch For: New England Patriots

Goodbye Belicheat? – Bill Belichick has worn the headset in New England since 2000, and has wrecked the Bills ever since. With speculation running rampant that this will be his final year as Patriots HC/GM, does he have anything up his sleeve for what could be his final game against the team that he has owned for 23 years? In their last meeting, Belichick had Mac Jones looking like Tom Brady out there when he orchestrated a game-winning drive against McDermott and the Bills’ vaunted defense. Let’s hope that it is the Bills giving Belichick a goodbye present, and not the other way around.

Bright Spot: Run Defense – There haven’t been many bright spots for the Patriots in their disastrous 2023 campaign, but their run defense is one of them. New England ranks second in overall run defense, surrendering only 85 rushing yards per game, and first in yards per carry. If you looked at those two stats alone, there is no way you would think the Pats were 4-11. James Cook has been cooking over the past month. So, going into a strength against strength matchup, it will be interesting to see which unit prevails, the Patriots D-Line or the Bills O-Line/rushing attack.

Prediction

Buffalo Bills 33 New England Patriots 17.  The Bills are the better team. And after all they have been through this year, I do not think they will let their division hopes crumble at the hands of the Patriots in their own home. Speaking of the division, my eyes will be split between this game and the Dolphins/Ravens game. Root hard for Baltimore on Sunday. If the Dolphins lose and the Bills win, Week 18 will be for the division.

Featured Image Credit: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images