3 Keys To Victory: Week 9 – Cincinnati Bengals

Following a reasonable win last Thursday over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Buffalo Bills had a mini-bye this week. It was a needed break. The first half of the season turned into something of a debacle, from unexpected losses to season-altering injuries. The narrative around the Bills has changed 1,000 times since August, but they’re not the only ones facing the music. The Cincinnati Bengals are also in a turmoil of their own making. Let’s take a quick look at the enemy we know, perhaps all too well.

Meet The Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were expected to remain the cream of the crop this season, but they’re currently last in the AFC North and out of a playoff spot. There’s plenty of season left, however, and they’re still capable of greatness. They proved it last week, playing dominating football against the San Francisco 49ers.

Joe Burrow looked phenomenal, but that’s not the case for much of this year. Was that game a return to winning football, or another high on a season ripe with lows? It would seem to be the latter, as the Bengals sit with the 4th fewest yards per game in the NFL, with only 276.9. Despite that, and their meager 18.7 points per game, the Cincinnati Bengals are not to be taken lightly, least of all by a Buffalo Bills team that has written the script on how to collapse in inopportune moments.

Defensively, Trey Hendrickson is playing extremely well with eight total sacks this season. Logan Wilson has three interceptions, despite playing linebacker, and his fellow LB Germaine Pratt has two of his own. Teams have passed and rushed well against Cincinnati, but the Bengals are forcing enough close stops to keep things tight.

How do we beat them? Let’s get into that.

3 Keys To Victory

By every metric the NFL has to offer, Joe Burrow has been an average QB this season, but Cincy has other ways to win that relying on a superstar performance from the quarterback.

Key #1 – Run, Unexpectedly

The Bengals defense lives in a two-high look. A chunk of their defensive philosophy isn’t dissimilar to that of one Leslie Frazier. Simply sitting back and taking away the big gains forces the offense to make the right call, and go short again and again and again. It’s a passive strategy, but one that works far more often than it doesn’t. Unlike Frazier’s defense, Cincinnati won’t stay in that look if it stops working.

By hitting them unexpectedly and consistently underneath, they will crash the box and open up larger gains downfield. How best to do this? Designed QB runs and handoffs that break our usual tendencies. Buffalo should stay aggressive, as being a 4-wide pass-first team has been our most successful identity, but we must keep the Bengals honest. No more outside draws to the running back, but QB draws that force the defense back into coverage, then give them too much ground to cover when they close to make the tackle. Roll right and scramble if the lane is there. Pitch it to James Cook when the Bengals corners play off the line of scrimmage. Make Cincinnati hesitate on “obvious passing downs”, and we open the field for our receivers to get the work they need when it matters most.

Key #2 – It’s Dime Time

In their three losses this season, the Bengals were unable to make a big play on offense. Joe Burrow needs a deeper outlet. They struggled when forced to play every snap underneath, as disciplined secondaries prevented them from breaking out. Of all their scores, no touchdowns were made from 5 or more yards out.

Now, Matt Milano is gone, and we’ll spend the season struggling to replace his effectiveness. However, we have matchup guys who can fill a role on gameday. Against Tampa, the Buffalo Bills experimented with safeties instead of our usual outside linebacker, sitting in a dime package and forcing our opposition to run or throw short. It seemed to be effective, and may be the solution against pass-first teams like Cincinnati. Mix in Taylor Rapp with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, with Poyer or Rapp taking the snaps in the box.

This look doesn’t stop us from being aggressive, throwing simulated pressure and getting after the QB, but it may take away passing lanes Joe Burrow relies on. Sticking to this zone scheme with an extra man to plug coverage gaps will keep Cincy struggling for an answer.

Key #3 – Ball Security, Again

Yes, it’s generic, and yes, it’s irritating. It still has to be said sometimes. Ball security is everything in this game. The Buffalo Bills may have forced more turnovers (14) than every team but two this season, but the Bengals have only one less than that (13) in one game fewer. On the other side, the Bills’ 12 giveaways is a stark contrast to the Bengals six. Cincy doesn’t need to force turnovers to play a great game and win, but we can’t afford to help them.

Key Player Of The Week: Taylor Rapp

Featured Image Credit: Jeff Dean/Associated Press