2022 Player Futures Bets

Last week, we talked about MVP and Super Bowl odds and division winners. This week, we are jumping into 2022 player futures. Player futures are fun bets and give you players to watch all year. There are a lot of great bets this season because of way the NFL offseason went.

Passing Yards Over/Under

Derek Carr Over 4500 (-110)

Carr has a couple of new weapons in his offense, adding Davante Adams — arguably the best WR in the NFL — to an already solid receiving core of Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. They added depth in the backfield too, which should help Carr with play action and keep defenses honest. Carr will have over 4500 passing yards this year and that offense is going to be fun to watch.

Carson Wentz Under 3500.5 (-110)

Wentz has reportedly been missing throws in practice and hasn’t seemed sharp. Playing on an already struggling team with an offense that has only one good receiver in Terry McLaurin isn’t enough to help Wentz hit this over. Wentz also tends to tuck the ball and run sometimes, taking away from his passing yards. Wentz ends up around 3000 yards; not good enough to hit the 3500 mark.

Passing TDs Over/Under

Josh Allen Over 35.5 (-110)

The over for Allen passing touchdowns is only at 35.5. That seems low for someone who threw 36 last year and keeps getting better. The offensive core returning and the addition of receiving back James Cook will help Allen in the passing game. I expect around 40 passing touchdowns from Allen this year. This should be one of the safest bets of the year.

Russell Wilson Over 31.5 (-110)

Wilson has thrown for over 31 TDs all but one season since 2017. (He only had 25 in 2021.) He may be on a new team, but he is still Russell Wilson and he is still going to be able to run an offense. Russell also has two really good receivers on the outside in Cortland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Both of these guys are big and should be able to do some work in the red zone.

Rushing Yards Leader

Nick Chubb (+1000)

Chubb is going to have a larger work load this year with Deshaun Watson not playing for at least the first six games and Kareem Hunt requesting a trade. Chubb is an amazing running back and every year has averaged over five yards a carry. With a larger work load this year, expect Nick Chubb to lead the NFL in rushing.

Rushing TDs Over/Under

Damien Harris Under 8.5 (-130)

Harris is expected to have 9 TDs to cover the over on 8.5 and that just doesn’t seem likely to me. The Patriots have always been a team of running back by committee and that won’t change.  They are going to split carries in that backfield and Harris isn’t going to always get the red zone touches. He had a lot of touchdowns last season, but he won’t be able to keep that up this year.

Lamar Jackson Over 6.5 (+100)

Lamar is probably the best scrambling QB of this era and having his rushing TD over at only 6.5 is criminal. He was over that in 2019 and 2020.  last year he wasn’t as productive finding the end zone but that feels like a fluke. Even in his rookie year he had five rushing touchdowns so only having two last year feels like it was just an off year. I expect him to be back to his normal production of his first three seasons.

Receiving Yards Over/Under

Tyreek Hill Under 1025.5 (-120)

Hill is now a Dolphin and has Tua throwing him the ball.  I don’t see him being able to get the ball down field to him as much as in Kansas City. There are also other targets in Miami.  Last year Jaylen Waddle emerged as a good receiver in his rookie year and will continue to get better, also Mike Gesicki is a top seven tight end catching the ball in my opinion. Hill is going to get his touches and will get some of the deep balls he is used to but not enough to put him over 1025.5.

Gabe Davis Over 875.5 (+100)

Davis has proved himself every time he has had the opportunity. He makes big plays and amazing catches. Davis is going to be the number two receiver in an air raid offense in Buffalo. At the end of last year in the playoffs Allen and Davis really seemed to click in the passing game and I expect that to carry over to this year.

Receiving TDs Over/Under

Justin Jefferson Over 9.5 (-110)

Jefferson showed great improvement from his already great rookie year and is only going to continue to get better. He had 10 TDs last year and I believe that his workload is only going up. They have the same weapons on offense as last year but this is only Jefferson’s third year in the NFL and he is not going to stop improving. The only thing that can slow him down is Kirk Cousins, but he can score from anywhere on the field and is a great red zone threat. I expect to see him around 12 or 13 touchdowns this year.

Michael Pittman Over 6.5 (-110)

Pittman is now the number one receiver in Indianapolis and has a better QB this year in Matt Ryan. Ryan is going to be able to get the play action game going with Jonathan Taylor being the dominant back he is. Pittman should benefit from this and be able to haul in at least seven TDs.

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