Why Not The Buffalo Bills?

The Buffalo Bills are officially AFC East Champions. From the wreckage of a 6-6 record and a tumultuous season full of injury woes and massive pitfalls, the Bills went on to storm through their final five games, sweeping the competition and taking back their place at the top of the division. They’ve had their woes, and even in their greatest moments they’ve been far from perfect, but with the postseason upon us, the odds are better than we could have hoped for.

As the #2 Seed, the Bills hold home-field advantage over all other playoff teams but one. They held a 5-1 record against playoff teams, the best in the NFL. No team has been dominant throughout the year, but we have excelled against top-tier competition. The field is muddled with imperfect contenders, so it begs the question: There must be a Super Bowl champion, so why not the Buffalo Bills?

Parity Above All

In all the years of AFC football we’ve seen, has there ever been a more closely fought conference? Not just the late battle for the #1 seed, but the division winners also. Not just them either, but a conference-wide top-to-bottom scramble amongst nearly every AFC team, each forcing their way into playoff contention at some point or another.

Buffalo ultimately gave enough evidence to prove they belong amongst the NFL’s elites, despite the bar for contention being higher than it’s been in decades. But, though iron sharpens iron, it also weeds out the flaws. As good teams go head-to-head, great coaches and players take advantage of weakness. Every one of the teams we may face this postseason is as imperfect as we are, and the field is wide open. Let’s get into it.

Our Imperfect Opposition

The 2023 NFL season was ferocious, and the only team that took a semi-comfortable lead was the one that had all it’s rivals lose their starting quarterbacks. Let’s start there.

#1 Seed – Baltimore Ravens

Yes, the Ravens. Let’s not discredit them, the AFC North was tough despite being damaged competition. Baltimore has done well this season, and are indisputably the biggest obstacle to a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl run, but they are not without warts. As a passing offense, they move the ball worse than a majority of the league. Whilst Lamar Jackson seems to be the expected MVP he carries a smaller weight, and does less to elevate his peers, than much of the field. He’s an incredible player, but Buffalo’s run defense has been vastly improved this season. Forcing them into relying on the pass against our secondary would be disastrous for Baltimore.

#3 Seed – Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is still perfectly capable of winning it all, but those who have paid attention understand this isn’t the same team we’ve been watching for the past five seasons. Defensively, they’re the best they’ve been in some time, but on the other side of the ball they struggle. The Chiefs have averaged 21.8 points per game this season on offense, five PPG below where we find Buffalo. Even with the Bills’ perceived turnover issues, Kansas City simply can’t keep up with our offense.

#4 Seed – Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are a young team loaded with potential, but they lack the diversity needed for a multifaceted playoff offense. Despite playing with a lead for most of the season, the Bills have allowed the 7th-fewest passing yards (196.6 y/g) in the NFL. Sean McDermott has consistently excelled against rookie quarterbacks, and if we can make C.J. Stroud think twice in the air, they won’t be able to beat Buffalo on the ground. The inverse of the Ravens, Houston can be grounded just the same. Their secondary bleeds yards and given the opportunity Buffalo will absolutely take advantage of that.

#5 Seed – Cleveland Browns

The one team that should make Buffalo uncomfortable is the Cleveland Browns, but they’re not indomitable either. Their claim to fame is the NFL’s #1 passing defense, which could absolutely cause Buffalo trouble. This will be especially true if Gabriel Davis misses time; He may be spotty, but his downfield blocking cannot be overrated.

Where Cleveland falls short, however, is in their ability to keep the offense going. Joe Flacco has been a surprise boon, but that’s all. An offensive line shredded by injuries and a run game that cannot be relied on aren’t common traits of a championship contender. Against this Bills run defense and pass-rush, expect the Browns to struggle.

#6 Seed – Miami Dolphins

What can we say about the Dolphins that hasn’t already been said? In his two games against Buffalo this season, Tua Tagovailoa has struggled mightily. No team has been as effective at shutting down Tyreek Hill and handicapping the Miami offense as the Bills have.

Meeting Miami again may still prove a challenge, but this team has overcome them twice in epic fashion this season. If they do meet again, why should we expect anything different? Healthy teams or not, this divisional matchup has been extremely one-sided.

#7 Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers

As the #2 Seed, the Bills’ first opponent will be the Steelers. Pay them some credit; They’re gutsy, and have succeeded this season despite great adversity. Coming into Buffalo, they must overcome new troubles. T.J. Watt, one of the NFL’s top players regardless of position, has been ruled OUT. He suffered an injury in the Steelers’ season-ending victory, and Pittsburgh loses their best player.

Wild Card news:#Steelers HC Mike Tomlin says QB Mason Rudolph will start vs the #Bills. Tomlin also mentioned pass rusher TJ Watt has been ruled out.

— Buffalo Fanatics (@BfloFanatics) January 9, 2024

They’re starting QB Mason Rudolph over the now-healthy Kenny Pickett, citing a ‘hot hand’ that has played an efficient few games. Still, the Steelers are a vastly inferior team, and playing comfortable and safe football should be enough to advance past them. With bad weather as the great equalizer in sports, Buffalo will still need to bring their best.

Why Not The Buffalo Bills?

The question is rhetorical. We too are not perfect contenders. The offense stalled out at times. Buffalo’s defense and special teams has cost them games. If Buffalo doesn’t sit atop the heap at the end, there will be a thousand valid, internal reasons why. What there won’t be is one giant, unstoppable team that took them out. Perhaps a juggernaut will emerge, perhaps it will even be the Bills, but there is no unbeatable foe, even us.

Every team in the AFC playoffs earned their place here; Nearly every one of them could make it’s run. The Buffalo Bills are such a team, entering Wild Card Weekend with a five-game winning streak to secure their #2 seed. The run has begun, and they’re but four short games away from glory.

Featured Image Credit: AP Photo/Lynne Sladky