Jenna’s Outlook Week 10: Bills (5-4) vs. Broncos (3-5)

At this point, many Buffalo Bills fans might be wondering, what’s next? I mean, they’re sitting at 5-4 with arguably the toughest schedule ahead of them despite barely making it past the easier portion. There is plenty of reason to panic. The AFC playoff race is starting to get crowded, and multiple teams in the relay hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo. Thankfully, all three of those teams (Jacksonville, New York Jets, and Cincinnati) lost on Sunday. This gives the Bills a little, but not very much, breathing room.

What is the best way that they could respond? Beating the Denver Broncos, of course. If you had asked me my thoughts on this game in Week 4, I would’ve told you the Bills would beat the Broncos by 60. After all, they had just destroyed the team that mauled Denver by 50 the week prior in the Miami Dolphins. It is surely a week-to-week league, and the transitive property is not real in the NFL, but it really makes you think. Now, if we fast forward to Week 10, my attitude is a lot different. This Denver Broncos team isn’t the same one that suffered such a historic loss in Week 3. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that has had their number for eight years, just two weeks ago. So, screw the transitive property! We’re doing elementary math now.

This is a must-win game for Buffalo. Losing would mean that their hopes of making the playoffs, much less winning the division, are pretty much down the drain. And darn you if you think that Sean Payton will just roll over and die!

We already knew that the Buffalo Bills were injured on defense, so I don’t think it will come as a surprise that they’re even more injured. S Micah Hyde (neck) and CB Christian Benford (hamstring) were declared out for Monday Night, and starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard is pretty much guaranteed to be out, despite being listed as questionable, with a concussion designation.

Meanwhile, the Broncos are healthy as a horse with zero game day designations on their end, and coming off of a bye week. The hope is that the Bills offense can redeem itself from its slow performances of the past two months and start to gain some traction heading into the second half of the season. What will that look like? I’m not sure, but I’ll still give you the rundown like I do every week!

Matchups to Watch

Buffalo Bills TEs vs. Denver Broncos Defense

Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid is playing his best football at this point in the season. He has already surpassed the Buffalo’s franchise record for receptions by a rookie tight end with 40, and he’s done this in eight games! Dawson Knox is still on injured reserve, but the Bills have been putting up great numbers from that position group despite his absence. According to Pro Football Reference, Denver’s defense gives up 71.1 tight end receiving yards per game, which is the most in the league. They also give up the fourth-most receptions to tight ends per game with 6.25 recs/game. Can Kincaid continue his dominance?

Bills LBs vs. Broncos Offense

As if the Bills defense wasn’t sorely missing Matt Milano, LB Terrel Bernard is likely to miss Monday Night’s game after suffering a concussion against the Bengals. He practiced all week in a limited capacity, but that may not be enough to allow him to suit up. This leaves Tyrel Dodson and rookie Dorian Williams as the probable starters for Week 10. Thankfully, both AJ Klein and Baylon Spector will be available after missing Week 9.

Broncos QB Russell Wilson has been partially successful over the middle this season. According to PFF’s advanced metrics, Russ has a 93.55 passer rating and 74.6% completion percentage on throws between 0-20 yards. However, he has two touchdowns and three interceptions on such passes. The Bills must capitalize in that area of the field.

Prediction: The Buffalo Bills will play “Complimentary Football”

I’m really sorry… I said the “c-word.” However, it is true. The Bills need to play complementary football. The offense hasn’t looked the part for almost two months and the defense is riddled with injuries. It is up to Josh Allen and Co. to string together drives that end in points. And we know that they’re capable of it. At this point, the offense is going to have to carry this team until the defense can get healthy again. Does that mean that they have to score 30 points each game? Probably not (okay, probably), but they’ll have to do just enough to win the game. Nevertheless, all facets of this Bills team will have to step up in the coming weeks before the bye. I expect the offense to get back on track.

Conclusion

Where did the time go? We’re already in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season, and the Buffalo Bills are preparing to cap off the week with a crucial matchup against an opportunistic and confident Denver Broncos team. I don’t believe this game will be easy. But I would not be surprised if the Bills offense found its way out of the quicksand in this must-win game. 

Next week, the Bills face a familiar foe; a team that gave them trouble in Week 1. This time, the rematch is in Orchard Park. Stay tuned for Jenna’s Week 11 Outlook when Buffalo squares off against the New York Jets!

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