Bills Sit at 5-4; Where Do They Go From Here?

As we sit here on a Wednesday morning, the Buffalo Bills sit at 5-4, second in the division, and with the hardest part of their schedule still to be played. The Bills still have the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys coming up on our schedule. Not to mention the LA Chargers and NY Jets mixed in there as well. With the offense still trying to figure out their identity, and an injury riddled defense, it’s not looking great for the 2023 season. So that begs the question, where do they go from here, in November with two months of football to go?

Finding an Offensive Identity

Like I last said, the Bills still have two months of football to be played. There’s still plenty of time to turn this ship around. But, with four difficult teams remaining on our schedule, Josh Allen, the coaching staff, and the entire offense need to figure out how to fix this mess and get back on schedule.

Coach McDermott mentioned they don’t have a good answer for why they didn’t go up-tempo earlier in the game. That could mean one of two things. He doesn’t have a good reason for not going to what has proven to work (Buccaneers game), or he wasn’t BS-ing us when he mentioned they “wanted to try out more styles of offense”. It doesn’t make sense to go away from something that’s proven to work a number of times to try out something different… in WEEK NINE of the season… when you’re fighting for a playoff spot.

After a high-powered first offensive drive, the play calling by Coach Dorsey felt very safe and conservative. A very up-tempo high powered offense became a shell of itself as the game went on. Drives stalled out, penalties and turnovers killed the following drives up until there was a measly four minutes left in the game. Then, they finally played with some urgency.

Ken Dorsey mentioned continuing to be a “two-dimensional” offense, but they aren’t. They had eight non-Josh Allen run plays against the Bengals, and a (better) 19 run plays called last week against the Buccaneers. Going farther back to the London game, they only called 10 run plays there. The Buffalo Bills run the ball a consistent amount most weeks, but it’s never enough to be considered a “two-dimensional” offense. We get away from it too much to throw the ball with Josh and end up airing it out for three quarters. (Editor’s Note: I’m getting serious 2022, 2021, and 2020 déjà vu here.)

Dalton Kincaid mentioned the Bills have something with their no-huddle offense, which is true. They ran no huddle for 21 plays, and it worked. The Bills had two nice drives running no huddle late in the game. Despite the Kincaid fumble, they had a nice drive that took them down the field, and the Stefon Diggs TD drive at the end of the fourth. If they can find a way to run no huddle often, and as effectively as Sunday night, the offense may find the spark they need moving forward.

The Bills offense has good stats on paper, but it doesn’t feel like it from the naked eye. A lot of stalled out drives resulting in punts or field goals when it matters the most. This is what fans and media latch onto more than anything. But they’re the league’s third-best offense, only behind the San Francisco 49ers (#1), and the Miami Dolphins (#2). They have a touchdown or first down on 77% of drives, and kick a FG 7% of the time.

Let’s get into the numbers

Offense

• 240 points scored (third in league)
• 50% third down conversion rate
• Allowed 13 sacks for 64 yards
• 973 rushing yards on 228 carries; 4.3 yards per rush
• Averaging 25.3 rushes per game (18th ranked)

Defense

• Allowing a 41.74% third down conversion rate
• Recorded 29 sacks for 173 yards
• Allowing 4.9 yards per rush
• Eight INTs

Addressing the Defensive Woes

I don’t want to only harp on the offense because, as we’ve seen, the defense isn’t entirely perfect either. They haven’t forced an INT since the Miami Dolphins game. That was FIVE weeks ago. A lot has happened in between there, but we still have the players in this secondary to get *bleep* done. The addition of Rasul Douglas should help that, especially facing a Russell Wilson-led Broncos team, who hasn’t been perfect the last two seasons.

The Buffalo Bills defense will have a tough task for the next couple of months, and could be down a starting safety depending on how/when Micah Hyde comes back from his neck injury. The front seven has regressed heavily. Granted, they’ve two key starters to season-ending injuries (Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones). But, after bringing in Poona Ford and Leonard Floyd, they should be getting more pressures on QBs. Additionally, Ed Oliver, Leonard Floyd, and AJ Epenesa were all dominating to begin the season. Somewhere along the way, a switch flipped and we aren’t getting to the QB lately or forcing turnovers. This isn’t helping out the offense. And the offense stalling out in their own territory isn’t helping out the defense. In other words, the Buffalo Bills aren’t playing “complimentary football” right now.

The Coaches Need Coaching Up

The coaches aren’t completely clean, either. As mentioned earlier, both Coach McDermott and Coach Dorsey aren’t playing up the true strengths of this team. They’ve taken away Josh’s strength, his legs and extending plays. They’re forcing Josh to be a pocket QB, and it’s affecting how this offense is pushing the ball downfield. We’ve lost that element of the offense that has scared opposing defenses since Josh came into the league six(!) years ago. Ken Dorsey seems to have players run the same route/multiple players ending up in the same area of the field, leading to INTs/incompletions.

Now onto the defensive playcaller. Sean McDermott blitzed 30.4% of the time against Cincy. When he did, Burrow got the ball out quick and found the gaps in the defense vacated by the extra rushers. Tanner Hudson, Irv Smith, and others were all left with open field in front of them, and Tyrel Dodson was left to (try) to make open field tackles.

McDermott and Co. need to clean it up this week against the Broncos, and learn from their mistakes before facing a gauntlet of opponents. If not, we need to prepare for a postseason where the Buffalo Bills are sitting at home with a 9-8 record.

Featured Image Credit: Sam Greene/USA TODAY NETWORK