Game Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys playing in a marquee game is nothing new. The stakes are just a tad lower than hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this time. However, the right to play for it is what hangs in the balance for Buffalo. While there are scenarios where they can get into the playoffs with another loss, winning out would erase every question or doubt for the Bills. Let’s dive in.

The Last Five

Bills 26 Cowboys 15 (2019)
Bills 16 Cowboys 6 (2015)
Cowboys 44 Bills 7 (2011)
Cowboys 25 Bills 24 (2007)
Cowboys 10 Bills 6 (2003)

The Buffalo Bills are looking for their third straight win against the team that calls themselves “America’s Team”. The last time these two played is widely considered the official coming out party for Josh Allen. A 4th and 1 play on Thanksgiving was the moment the entire NFL realized exactly who Buffalo had under center. Dallas leads the all-time series 8-5, including their two Super Bowl victories over Buffalo.

What To Watch For: Buffalo Bills

Missing WRs in Wins- While Buffalo’s offense has been much more successful with Joe Brady calling the plays the past three games, an odd trend has developed in their two wins. That is, Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis have disappeared. This is not to say they haven’t had an impact on the game, they certainly have. Just that their impact has not resulted in receptions and significant yardage. You’d think, at some point, that will have to change for the Bills to continue to be successful on offense.

In wins against Jets and Chiefs:

In loss against Eagles:

The emergence of James Cook as a receiver can explain some of what is happening. But, if there was ever a week to buck this trend, having to keep up with a dangerous Dallas Cowboys offense might be the one.

Secondary – Chalk up another ‘W’ for Brandon Beane in the trade category for his acquisition of cornerback Rasul Douglas from the Green Bay Packers at the trade deadline. Douglas has been phenomenal so far. He has even led some Bills fans to wonder if a tough decision needs to be made with Tre’Davious White this offseason. Douglas and Buffalo’s secondary did an excellent job on Travis Kelce last week, something that had me concerned without Matt Milano in the lineup. They will have their hands full again this week, with play makers all over the Cowboys offense. The secondary will be shorthanded once again, with Micah Hyde out with a stinger. Playing without Hyde and/or Poyer is nothing new to this Bills defense, unfortunately.

McDermott’s Specialty – One of Sean McDermott’s strengths over his six years in Buffalo has been his record against NFC opponents. Maybe it’s his time spent in the NFC prior to joining the Bills that gives him a leg up in the inter-conference games, but when the Bills play an NFC team, they generally do very well. Sunday will be McDermott’s 31st game against an NFC opponent. In his 30 games coached against the NFC, McDermott is a very impressive 21-9. Winning nearly 70% of your inter-conference games is a large part of why the Bills have had their regular season success over the past six seasons with McDermott as the coach.

What To Watch For: Cowboys

Dak 4 MVP? – Dak Prescott has been on a tear since the end of October. Frankly, he has been fantastic all year, but the MVP talk surrounding him as intensified as he has lit up opposing defenses for the better part of two months now. Prescott has also cleaned up some of the boneheaded plays that have plagued Dallas in big moments over the years. He only has six interceptions on the year, half of those coming in a Week 5 blowout loss to the 49ers. And he has not thrown one in a month. Prescott leads the league in touchdown passes with 28.

Game Breakers – For as good as we think the Buffalo Bills offense is, the Dallas Cowboys offense is better, at least statistically. A threat to score every time they have the ball, it appears that everyone is finally playing to their potential in Dallas, and the results have been impressive. The team averages 381 total yards per game, which is three more than the Bills. They lead the league with 32.4 points per game, nearly eight points more than the Bills.

CeeDee Lamb has entered into the “elite” category this year after a few seasons of being on the fringe. Lamb is on pace to have a career year in nearly every important WR category. The Cowboys also bring TE Jake Ferguson to the table, who is second on the team with 51 receptions. Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup fill out an impressive WR room. On the ground, Tony Pollard is averaging four yards per carry, and also is a threat in the passing game, having caught 49 passes this year. He only trails behind Lamb and Ferguson on the team. With weapons all over the field, the Cowboys have found their recipe for success. Very few teams have been able to slow them down this year.

Putting the D in Big D – For all of the fireworks on the offensive side of the ball, Dallas also has some play makers on the defensive side of the ball. Micah Parsons has 12.5 sacks on the year (nearly one per game), and leads the league with 82 quarterback pressures. The defense as a whole is very stingy when it comes to yards allowed, averaging only 290 yards per game, which is third-best in the league. They have given up 28 touchdowns on the year, one more than the Bills defense.

On the outside, old friend Stephon Gilmore is still proving to be an above-average/great corner in the league. The Cowboys has moved his around this year to shadow some of the best receivers. Two weeks from now, it will be interesting to look back and see how Gilmore fared lining up against Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill in consecutive weeks.

Prediction

Dallas Cowboys 31 Buffalo Bills 27. I am feeling very optimistic about Buffalo’s chances to make the playoffs, given how they have played over the past three games and how things around them have fallen. But… I think the Dallas Cowboys are a really tough matchup for the Bills. I believe the Dallas offense is better than people are giving them credit for this week. A win on the road against the sputtering Chiefs was nice, but I think the ‘Boys are on a different level than the current Super Bowl champs.

Last week, the Bills offense sputtered at times. I have not seen that lack of consistency out of Dallas this year. I think Dallas controls the pace for much of this game and a late score by the Bills makes things close, but when it comes down to the Xs and Os, it is the Bills defense against this Dallas offense that has me concerned in this one. Prove me wrong Bills!

Featured Image Credit: Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports