Game Preview: Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Welcome back, Bills fans! If you based your feelings from the pulse of the fanbase on social media over the past few months, you must be be thinking that the Bills’ Super Bowl window is closed, Stefon Diggs wants out of Buffalo, and the Bills’ run atop the AFC East is over. Whether any of those statements are true remain to be seen. While I think all three of those assertions are wrong, only time will tell what the 2023-2024 Buffalo Bills have in store for us.

The Last Five

Bills 20 Jets 12 (2022)
Jets 20 Bills 17 (2022)
Bills 27 Jets 10 (2021)
Bills 45 Jets 17 (2021)
Bills 18 Jets 10 (2020)

Last year, these two teams played in two one-score games. The Buffalo Bills outplayed the New York Jets massively in both games. However, self-inflected errors by Buffalo, combined with a very good Jets defense, kept both games close until the end. The Bills lead the all-time series between the two-teams 68-57-0. They are the only team in the AFC East that the Bills have a winning record against.

What To Watch For: Buffalo Bills

McDermott’s Defense – For the duration of his time as Buffalo’s head coach, Sean McDermott has had his hands on the defense, but has stopped short of taking credit for the unit. As often as he could, McDermott shifted any credit the unit received onto Leslie Frazier. With Frazier taking a year away from coaching, Sean McDermott can no longer deny what many believed to begin with: This is his defense and any success, or failure, will be a direct reflection on him.

After the first preseaon game, fans were convinced that increased pressure (via blitzing) would be a new wrinkle that we would see with McDermott now calling the defensive plays. Time will tell on that one. However, I still think the Bills will try to generate pressure with the front 4 as often as possible. Another wrinkle in McDermott’s calling plays this year, is if it will have a negative impact on his overall coaching decisions and attention to detail on the offense and special teams. It will be something to monitor as the year goes on. However, knowing McDermott, you can bet that a plan to prevent any communication breakdowns has been put in place.

Dorsey Act II – A common theme from Buffalo’s loss to Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional Round was how predictable of Ken Dorsey’s unit became as the year went on. Entering year two as a NFL playcaller, it will be interesting to see how Dorsey responds.

How he incorporates new tight end Dalton Kincaid into the mix is something that fans will be watching closely. Unfortunately, Dorsey drew one of the toughest defenses to start out his sophomore campaign. A staple of Buffalo’s offense over the past few years has been the ease at which they have moved the ball at times; the surgical and methodical way that Allen would move the ball down the field has been nothing short of impressive. As I mentioned, the Bills struggled with that exact thing towards the end of last year. Establishing an offensive flow to start the season, even against a great defense, will be important for Dorsey.

What To Watch For: New York Jets

All Eyes on Rodgers – The Jets have gone “all in” on a Super Bowl-winning veteran QB in an attempt to win a Super Bowl in the next 1-2 years. Sound familiar? Thought so. The Aaron Rodgers situation is a repeat of what the team attempted to do with Brett Favre back in 2008.

That ended up being a pretty epic failure for the team. The Jets are hoping that the second time will be the charm with Rodgers. Last year, Aaron Rodgers looked tired and at times like he was ready to retire. A newfound sense of youth and love of the game has accompanied him to the Big Apple. With it came expectations as high as the towers that make up the historic skyline. Viewers of HBO’s Hard Knocks have commented that Rodgers appears reborn in New York. The team can only hope that his statistics will also be “reborn” as he begins his 19th NFL season.

Sophomore Slump or Even Better Year 2? – One reason for New York’s impending turnaround is their success hitting on draft picks. On Monday night, the Jets will trout out the reigning Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the year in Garret Wilson and Sauce Gardner, respectively. Not to mention running back Breece Hall had an excellent rookie season before tearing his ACL in Week 7. It is not hyperbole to say that Gardner, Wilson, and Hall could arguably end up being the best trio of players ever drafted by one team consecutively in the same draft.

The thing that will either solidify that comment, or make me sound like a fool, is their performance in their sophomore year. It is hard to imagine Gardner and Wilson playing even better this year, but it is very possible. Garret Wilson won the Offensive Rookie of the year catching passes from Zach Wilson and Mike White. Imagine what he will be capable of with a future Hall-of-Famer throwing him the balls.

Prediction

New York Jets 27 Buffalo Bills 24. I’ve had since May to think about this, and even a few days before the game, I remain puzzled by this matchup. I am not sure the Bills match up that great against this New York Jets team, and that worries me. The other thing that worries me is the Bills’ offense. Will the additions they made be enough to make a difference? Nobody can be sure until they start to play.

It is clear that the team lacked firepower on the offensive side of the ball. I still question if Harty, Sherfield, and Kincaid are enough of a “splash” to keep this team on contender level. While I do think Rodgers is on his way out, I believe he is mentally energized and refreshed, which will make a difference on the field. I can see the Jets coming out on top in this one, with it being a close game until the very end.

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