2023 Mid-season Rookie Report

Throughout nine weeks of regular season football, I’ve had an ample amount of time to analyze and reflect upon the performances of the Buffalo Bills’ 2023 rookie class. Only three of Buffalo’s rookies made the active roster and appeared in their games, two of whom have taken starting snaps in each game. (WR Justin Shorter made the team, but is on the Injured Reserve List.) TE Dalton Kincaid, OG O’Cyrus Torrence, and LB Dorian Williams have each contributed in their own way through. Most rookies that are drafted by the Buffalo Bills do not make such an impact until their second or third season. But the 2023 draft class has already made a name for itself. Let’s see where our rookies are today as we head into the second half of the season!

TE Dalton Kincaid

The rookie tight end has been one of the most anticipated prospects the Bills have had in quite some time. His draft selection was very much predicated on the fact that Buffalo wanted to utilize 12-personnel more in their offense. The thought of Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox being on the field at the same time was attractive to the Buffalo Bills’ front office. They could have another capable pass catcher alongside the wide receivers, while also having the option to run the ball.

We saw a glimpse of what Kincaid could be in preseason, as he improved upon his blocking skills and posted a modest three catch, 45 yard stat line in the preseason game against Pittsburgh. Of course, the hype for Dalton garnered hope that he would be an immediate contributor from Week 1. That, unfortunately, was not the case. 

The Bills certainly achieved their goal of using two tight ends sets. They led the league in 12-personnel usage in Week 1, with a usage rate of 57%, according to Sports Info Solutions. However, since then, its usage (of course) has decreased. This was due to the progression of the season and a larger sample size. Buffalo, as it stands in Week 9, ranks 10th in the league in 12-personnel usage (24.8%), according to Sumer Sports. This is miraculous because, in 2022, the Bills were at the bottom of the league! This is the Dalton Kincaid effect.

Based on Kincaid’s presence on the field, you would think that he’s been lighting up the stat sheet. Well, he’s been targeted 45 times, which is significantly more than Dawson Knox has been in the same number of games, but the poor guy had to wait until Week 8 to score his first touchdown!

One might say that his game against the Buccaneers was his breakout game, and I would agree. On display was the savvy route runner and elite hands that the Bills were hoping for when they drafted him. In that game he had 5 receptions for 65 receiving yards and one touchdown. I jumped up and down when he walked into the endzone, screaming, “I won!”. It was not a parlay leg, but a wager placed in my heart that I had won. I so badly wanted him to score, and he finally broke the door down.

In fact, Dalton has all but supplanted Dawson as TE1, but that is no fault of Knox. The Bills placed TE Dawson Knox on injured reserve so that he could get wrist surgery. The hope is that they can expect him back in due time, but for now it is Dalton’s job. So far, Kincaid has 40 receptions for 339 receiving yards and one touchdown in eight games. In my rookie preview, I predicted that he would have 50 receptions, 65 targets, 760 receiving yards, and 5 touchdowns. He is close!

I didn’t think it would take as long as it did for him to score his first touchdown. But, with the way QB Josh Allen favors wide receivers, we probably should’ve expected a gradual introduction into the offense. He was knocking on the door for quite some time, though. A touchdown intended for him was sniped by WR Stefon Diggs in the Week 4 game against Miami, but we wouldn’t want it any other way. Dalton was on full display for the entire league to see, doing what we all know he is capable of. When Knox is back in the lineup, the rookie will have plenty of experience running the show on his own. It’s only be a matter of time before Dalton Kincaid is the primary tight end in the offense.

OG O’Cyrus Torrence

Give it up for the big guy! It is amazing that the NFL let Cybo sneak into the second round. He has been every bit as valuable as he would’ve been if he were a first round pick. It is no coincidence that the entire offensive line has gotten better, including OT Spencer Brown. While his PFF grade is an abomination, the game tape is the best indicator of an offensive lineman’s performance. On tape, it is very obvious that he possesses a strong anchor amidst contact with defensive linemen.

Despite being credited with one sack and 19 pressures allowed, as well as four penalties, O’Cyrus Torrence has been a rock-solid player in the trenches for the Bills. I had a feeling that his zero-sack streak would end at some point, but he has still been the player that I expected him to be when he was drafted. It is refreshing to see the interior of the offensive line hold up against constant pressure, especially after facing some of the toughest interior defensive lineman in the league.

Even though Cybo is a rookie, he’s handled himself perfectly. The most important thing is that he is not putting QB Josh Allen in dangerous situations, and that he is allowing Spencer Brown to perfect his craft. No part of the offensive line has been a complete liability so far this season. In fact, the Buffalo Bills are the best pass blocking offensive line based on composite ratings through nine weeks. Who would’ve thought that the Bills would be in that position?

LB Dorian Williams

I apologize if I jinxed this team. In my rookie preview, I mentioned something along the lines of “I hope he does not get the chance” to start in place of LB Matt Milano. After Terrel Bernard won the MLB job, I hoped that we wouldn’t have to see a backup linebacker unless the Bills pulled their starters. Unfortunately, superstar LB Matt Milano suffered a lower leg injury in Week 5, which should sideline him indefinitely.

Dorian Williams immediately stepped into his role after he left the Jaguars game, and started against the Giants and Patriots. He had a solid game on Sunday Night Football against the Giants, recording 10 combined tackles, with six of them being solo tackles. He also had one quarterback hit. Williams was then, sadly, replaced by Tyrel Dodson in the game against New England due to his inconsistencies and over-pursuance on certain plays. He did not play a snap on defense against the Buccaneers.

Instead, Bernard moved to weak-side linebacker and Tyrel played at middle linebacker. It makes sense that the Bills trust Dodson to step in due to his experience, although many fans may not agree with the move. The Buffalo Bills are still trying to figure out how to mitigate the loss of Milano, and it is not an easy thing to do. He was playing at an All-Pro level prior to his injury. If anything, this is a good opportunity for Dorian Williams to understand the nuances of the defense as he navigates the lineup week to week. He will only continue to get better. The Bills believe in his development, and they want to do it the right way.

Conclusion

The Buffalo Bills’ 2023 rookie class should put to bed any claim that the Bills do not start their rookies. Two out of the three rookies that are on the active roster have consistently started in the games that they’ve played in. Dalton Kincaid, although he hasn’t put up big numbers, has proven himself to be a reliable target for Josh Allen. O’Cyrus Torrence has been as good as advertised, anchoring the league’s best pass blocking unit. It is unfortunate that Dorian Williams has not found himself as the solidified backup behind Matt Milano. However, he was never supposed to start and there seems to be a plan in place to ease him in slowly so that he is not being thrown to the wolves unassisted.

I plan on doing an end-of-the-season Rookie Report at some point, so stay tuned! In the meantime, I will be doing my game outlooks each week.

Featured Image Credit: Bryan Bennett/Getty Images