The Rookie Report: 2023 Season Preview

The 2023 NFL regular season begins for the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, and while the rookies have already felt what it is like to get ready for game day during the preseason, they are about to get a taste of primetime. Only two of the six players drafted this past year are expected to have significant roles for the Bills in 2023 — that being TE Dalton Kincaid and OG O’Cyrus Torrence — but, who’s to say the others can’t contribute as well? Besides, there are some undrafted free agents who made the practice squad. Also, things might change in-season. God forbid there are injuries, drop offs in production, or waiver wire snatches (knock on wood). What rookies should you be looking out for exactly? Here, I’ll tell you:

TE Dalton Kincaid

Surely you haven’t heard this guy’s name over and over again. (I will never tire of it!) Dalton Kincaid has certainly looked the part. From his savvy one-handed catch to his quick-reacting touchdown play off of a tipped pass he made in training camp, it seems as if he is primed for a historical rookie season. Okay, let’s pump the breaks. This is the Buffalo Bills we are talking about. They don’t play their rookies! But, how many times have they inserted a rookie straight into the starting lineup? Actually, they’ve done it multiple times. I can name several Bills rookies who have carved out starting roles in their freshman year:

• Dion Dawkins
• Tre’Davious White
• Tremaine Edmunds
• Greg Rousseau
• Spencer Brown
• and Josh Allen (among others) 

The Buffalo Bills front office drafted Kincaid for a reason. In 2022, the Bills had one of the lowest 12-personnel usages in the entire league at 4%, according to Sharp Football Analysis. The only other team that used it less was the Cincinnati Bengals at 3%, and they have one of the best WR trios in the league.

In the off-season before, GM Brandon Beane signed TE O.J. Howard in hopes of pairing him with TE Dawson Knox, but we all know how that worked out. One day O.J. played in the fourth quarter of a preseason game, and the rest was history. Going back even further, the Bills attempted it with Jacob Hollister in 2021 and Tyler Kroft in 2019-2020. (Let’s all give a moment of silence for the fraudulent interception that Kroft so rightfully caught, and stay for the beautiful touchdown grab in the end zone.)

If they utilize Kincaid properly, we could see the Bills be just as versatile as ever. Imagine they open up in a two-tight-end set… Knox and Kincaid are in-line with James Cook in the backfield… Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs are out wide… Josh Allen is under center, so you think they’re going to run the ball, until the snap, and Kincaid flushes out into the slot. Cook has seemingly improved on his pass blocking, so he would be an added chess piece in these situations.

Obviously what I had detailed is a simple scenario, but I expect Kincaid to have a significant role in this offense despite being a rookie. It wouldn’t even be a surprise to me if Kincaid had more receiving yards than Dawson Knox. Kincaid is a different kind of tight end. Don’t fall into the trap of the “rookie tight ends don’t do much” narrative. He could be the exception. Would you like a stat prediction? I’ll include it below…

Receiving Statistics: 65 targets, 50 catches, 760 yards, 5 touchdowns

OG O’Cyrus Torrence

Finally, O’Cyrus Torrence has won the right guard competition. I mean, who can blame the coaching staff? He was a stud in preseason! Despite having a favorite in Ryan Bates, the rookie outperformed him. Torrence will make his NFL debut on Monday Night against the New York Jets, sandwiched in between Mitch Morse and Spencer Brown. What are our expectations of him? At both Louisiana and Florida, Cybo boasted zero sacks, proving his seamless transition from the Sun Belt to the SEC. However, I believe he will have his rookie awakening at some point this season. No, that doesn’t mean he can’t be a Pro-Bowler — I wouldn’t be surprised if he were in his second season — but he won’t be perfect. 

In the same breath, Torrence is going to be a significant part of the 2023 Bills offense. What have the Buffalo Bills been missing? They’ve been lacking a physical presence on their offensive line. If Spencer Brown can improve from last season, you best bet that Torrence will shore up the right side of the line, both in pass protection and run blocking. However, he is still only one-fifth of that group and they will need to work together to protect Buffalo’s prized possession, Josh Allen.

LB Dorian Williams

As President of the Dorian Williams fan club, I am saddened to announce that he will not start Week 1. Being the backup to Matt Milano, I would hope that he does not get the chance. However, I would not be surprised if he gets a nod at middle linebacker if somehow the new starter, Terrel Bernard, doesn’t work out (knock on wood). What’s not to love? He’s explosive, a tackle machine — he recorded 316 total tackles in his four seasons at Tulane — and he has arm length for days.

Whatever his role is, the Bills certainly have a trustworthy group of weakside linebackers on their roster. I’d expect McDermott to use Williams as the third linebacker in the 4-3 formation if he ever takes Taron Johnson off of the field. Don’t be shocked if Dorian makes a big play before Week 9. That is also the week that I will be releasing my mid-season rookie report, so hopefully something happens so that you can read a cool article.

WR Justin Shorter

For the second consecutive season, the Buffalo Bills have left their fifth round wide receiver to sit the bench. Actually, it is no one’s fault. Unfortunately, on August 30th, Shorter was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. The good news is that he can come back to the active roster after four weeks, and Buffalo will need that depth. The Bills currently hold five wide receivers on the 53, which is smart considering they can call up Andy Isabella, or even Marcell Ateman, in the first few weeks of the season.

Josh Allen even alluded to Shorter’s skill set on The Pat McAfee Show, but he chose to leave it at that. It also seems as if there was another voice in the room, which had influenced his decision. Pac-Man Jones asked about Shorter’s role in the offense, and Allen went on to talk about his physical attributes and how he could develop from a special teams guy to a pivotal player for the franchise — but wait, he couldn’t say anything else! He could’ve mentioned his status on IR, but he didn’t. Could the Bills be stashing Shorter for reasons other than his injury? If so, a lack of film on him could give them an advantage. Whatever their plan is, it doesn’t seem like they’re putting him on the back-burner without good intention.

Nick Broeker & Alex Austin

I guess Brandon Beane is so bad at drafting, that two of his final 2023 draft picks were snagged by the Houston Texans. I had high hopes for Nick Broeker and Alex Austin. Certainly I didn’t think they’d make the Bills’ roster, but they could’ve at least made it on to the practice squad had they cleared waivers. Maybe they could find their way back to Buffalo in the future.

Speaking of coming back, I will be dropping my Mid-Season Rookie Report in Week 9, so make sure you keep an eye out! Hopefully I have some good things to report back to you all!

Featured Image Credit: WGRZ