Will the Buffalo Bills Offense Regress Without Stefon Diggs?

It is the dog days of summer. The Allen/Diggs 2024 signs are on clearance and filling the dumps around town. There’s a sense of impending regression as the best WR to suit up for Buffalo in years is headed to Houston. Things have not seemed this bleak since the pre-Josh Allen days. However, I believe that the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Offensive Production Ebbs and Flows

Before examining the Bills specifically, I believe it is important to examine offensive and defensive trends league-wide over the past few seasons. The league is constantly evolving, offensive coaches will create something that puzzles defensive coaches, and teams adapt. Scoring league-wide increases and decreases over the years. If you poll Bills fans on Allen’s best career year, most would say 2020 and they would be right.

However, 2020 was also the highest offensive output in league history. It was not just a Bills specific occurrence. Sure, they were ahead of the trend, creating a WR room full of shifty separators and stressing defensive minds, but a lot of teams saw highs in scoring that year. Our friends over in Kansas City generated 6,653 yards in 16 games, good for top of the league. In 2020, the NFL averaged 49.6 points scored per game (12,692 points scored/256 games played). In 2023, that has dropped to 43.5 ppg (11,842 points scored/272 games played). So what is my point? Defensive coaches are ahead of the curve now. What worked previously when Allen (and many other QBs) were most successful is not working now.

How will the Bills fare without Stefon Diggs?

Now when examining the state of the Buffalo Bills offense, the headliner is that All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs is no longer on the team. He is undoubtedly talented, but the drop off in his production last season was jarring. Over the last 10 games of 2023, Diggs had 422 yards on 80(!!) targets. In comparison, WR Khalil Shakir had 462 yards on 38(!!) targets. Is this to say that Shakir is a better WR? No.

However, Buffalo’s offense was most successful when they relied on players who were not #14. Dalton Kincaid had 438 yards on 41 receptions, and saw a big uptick in production as the year went on. The Bills also leaned into the run game last season with James Cook finishing second in rushing yards league-wide.

Buffalo Bills Offensive Personnel Moves

With all of that in mind, let’s turn our attention to the personnel moves the Bills have made this summer. Besides trading Diggs, they have also invested in larger WRs. Some of the notable WR additions were #33 overall pick Keon Coleman (6’4”) and free agents Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6’4”), Chase Claypool (6’4”). The Bills also added to the running back room with rookie Ray Davis in Round 4, who is impressive as a rusher and will shock some with his pass catching ability.

I believe this is the Bills attempting to buck the trend and create an offense that can counter the recent defensive dominance the league had seen. Sending out bigger bodies, relying on the run game, and playing a physical style of offense is a good counter to some of the softer defensive shells that they’ve been seeing. I can’t think of a single coach that is OK with getting the ball ran on them efficiently. It is one of the more demoralizing things in football.

The Buffalo Bills are leaning into what worked for them down the stretch last season. Trading out All-Pro caliber talent, like Stefon Diggs, is hard to swallow. However, I truly don’t think it was a bad move. It may be just what the Bills and Diggs needed.

Featured Image: Adrian Kraus/Associated Press