Wild Card Preview: Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Welcome to the second season. Just six weeks ago, the Buffalo Bills’ season was on the ropes. Now, they are the AFC’s #2 seed for the third time in four seasons, and have guaranteed themselves back-to-back home games if they can defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers this week in the Wild Card Round. For the second year in a row, the Bills will open the playoffs against a team on their third quarterback. Let’s hope this year goes smoother than last year’s Wild Card game went.

The Last Five

Bills 38 Steelers 3 (2022)
Steelers 23 Bills 16 (2021)
Bills 26 Steelers 15 (2020)
Bills 17 Steelers 10 (2019)
Steelers 27 Bills 20 (2016)

The Bills and Steelers will meet for the fourth straight season on Sunday. Last year, the vaunted Steelers defense came into Orchard Park. All Josh Allen did was casually drop a 35-point blowout on them. Buffalo and Pittsburgh have been on different paths this season. However, both of them finished strong enough to make the tournament for the Lombardi. Pittsburgh is playing for their seventh and, of course, Buffalo is looking for their first. This will be the 30th time these two teams play, with Pittsburgh leading the all-time series 17-12.

What To Watch For: Buffalo Bills

Fast Start – A fast start from the Buffalo Bills offense on Sunday will prevent the Steelers from keeping the game where they want it: a low scoring punt fest. Falling behind a couple touchdowns early will also force Pittsburgh to abandon the run and rely heavily on Mason Rudolph and the passing game. That’s something that many, if not all, are skeptical of him being able to do despite his strong showing against the Seahawks two weeks ago.

The Bills haven’t started fast since their blowout of the Cowboys back in mid-December. While Pittsburgh does have an impressive defense, Josh Allen and the offense must find a way to get the better of them early and often on Sunday. Another lackluster showing in the Wild Card round against a team’s third quarterback and the Mafia will start getting restless.

The 3 Ds – Douglas, Davis, and Dodson. All three players got injured in the first half of Buffalo’s AFC East clinching win Sunday night in Miami. One of them is already ruled out. It is a difficult time to get cute with injuries and try to “get by” without a player for a week, seeing that there will be no next week for the Bills if they lose. However, I do believe that the Bills could, in fact, get by without all three of those players this week. Giving them all an extra week of rest before facing either Patrick Mahomes, CJ Stroud, or (*checks notes*) Joe Flacco, might benefit the Bills in the long run instead of rushing them back this week, especially if the playing surface isn’t ideal due to the weather.

We know for sure that Gabriel Davis won’t play, which is not a surprise. Anytime a player cannot finish a game, it is not a good sign for the following week. Rasul Douglas advocated to re-enter last week’s game, which might indicate he could be ready to go this week. He is officially questionable this week. At this point in the year, veteran players missing practice isn’t the end of the world for them. What is most important is getting them healthy for , hopefully, a deep playoff run. Tyrel Dodson is also questionable for the game. Finally, Taylor Rapp, who wrapped up the division with a game-ending interception, will also miss this one due to an injury sustained on the final play.

Bills’ Advantage Neutralized? – The impending snow storm on Sunday has caught the attention of nearly everyone by now. Questions are once again swirling, just as the snow will be on Sunday afternoon, as to why the Bills decided on another open air stadium. For most, the point isn’t being raised because they do not want to sit out in the cold. Western New Yorkers are well-equipped to deal with cold weather. The issue being raised, yet again, is why the powers that be decided on a stadium that could possibly neutralize the team’s biggest strength.

While the next stadium won’t impact Sunday’s game (it doesn’t open until 2026), it is worth wondering if the Bills offense will be as effective with some heavy snowfall predicted, or will it stumble out of the gate much like they did last year in their Divisional Round loss to the Bengals, which also included snow. For me, it is not so much the snow, but rather the wind that could have an impact on Josh Allen and the offense. While I do not think it will impact the offense in this game, it is a narrative that will always be there until the Bills go out and score 30+ with the wind whipping and the snow blowing. Hopefully, that will be this weekend.

What To Watch For: Pittsburgh Steelers

Rudolph – It was a great month for Rudolph. The red-nosed fellow led Santa on another trip around the globe a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph has had an adventurous month too, winning all three of his starts and leading Pittsburgh to an improbable playoff run. Rudolph’s numbers are impressive, as well. Over the three-game win steak, Rudolph has completed 74% of his passes, averaged 240 passing yards per game, thrown three TDs, zero INTs, and has an average passer rating of 118. Not bad for a team’s third quarterback. Rudolph has exceeded expectations over the team’s run to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Style Football – The way the Pittsburgh Steelers play football would please the likes of Rex Ryan: tough, physical, a battle in the trenches, ground and pound, play great defense, etc. The Steelers won plenty of games that way this year. If they are going to win their biggest game of the year, they will have to do it the same way. A difficult forecast plays into the Steelers’ hands, as well as the Bills’ struggles against the run. Similar to what Miami did to the Bills last week, Pittsburgh will want to stick to their game script and establish the run early in the game.

The key for Mike Tomlin will be adjusting to Sean McDermott’s adjustments. Last week, the Bills adjusted in the second half of the game and it completely neutralized the Dolphins. If the Steelers fail to counter-adjust, it will be a long afternoon in the snow for them.

Low Wattage – The Steelers’ best chance of pulling the upset will not be suiting up for the game. Elite edge rusher TJ Watt got injured in their Week 18 win against the Baltimore Ravens’ backups. Despite leaving the game early, Watt did enough damage to the Ravens to warrant being named AFC Defensive Player of the Week. Watt finished with eight tackles (three for loss) and 2 sacks. Watt finished first in the league in sacks again (19) — for the third time in his career. Watt’s absence cannot be understated for a team that relies on winning low-scoring games by forcing turnovers and making their opponent settle for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Prediction

Buffalo Bills 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 14. Last year, the Buffalo Bills barely squeaked by the Dolphins in the Wild Card round. It was clear that fatigue after a tumultuous season was setting in. This year, I sense a much different feel from this Bills team. I expect them to start their playoff campaign on a high note. I do not expect the weather to be a significant factor in this one, despite the worry. Go Bills!

Featured Image Credit: AP Photo/Adrian Kraus