Last week was a challenging week for gambling and my picks weren’t good. Overall, on the season my picks are 8-10. After a rough week, it’s time to bounce back, this week’s slate is another tough one. There are a lot of good games with a lot of risky spreads. There is only one game that I feel very confident in the spread.
Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ Minnesota- The Packers defense has been playing very well, holding Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, and Russel Wilson to 21 points or less in the last three weeks. If they can continue this and have Aaron Rodgers on the other side of the ball, the Packers should be able to cover the spread.
ML Parlay: Chargers over Steelers, Panthers over the Football Team, and Packers over Vikings
Packers: see above comments
The Chargers had a tough loss last week and they need to bounce back to continue to compete for the AFC West. Justin Herbert hasn’t been playing his best football and I think that is about to change. The Steelers defense has some key players, Minka Fitzpatrick and TJ Watt, likely not playing and that will help Herbert have a big week. On the other side of the ball for the Steelers this is another week where Big Ben isn’t expected to play. These factors lead to the Chargers winning this game.
The Panthers have been reborn since Cam Newton came back. They played great last week, even though it was the Cardinals without Kyler Murray, it was still a good win. This will also be the first week that Newton will play in front of the crowd in Carolina. This homecoming for Newton combined with the fact that the Football Team has some key players injured, like Chase Young, will lead to another Panthers win.
1) Patriots -1 over Falcons + Bengals +5 vs. Raiders
Patriots play the Falcons on Thursday night and they have been playing great football. They have been playing strong in all three facets of the game and this should continue against the Falcons. The run game has been great for the Patriots and with Damien Harris expected to be back this week, the run game should only get better.
The Bengals have had a tough couple of weeks but should bounce back this week to keep themselves in the playoff picture. They play the Raiders who have had an array of locker room issues recently that have been too much for them to overcome. The Bengals receiving core will prove to be too much for the Raiders defense and the Bengals will end up winning this game.
2) Cowboys +8.5 vs. Chiefs + Buccaneers -5 over Giants
The Cowboys play the Chiefs. The Chiefs have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and they are going against one of the best pass offenses in the NFL. The Cowboys will be able to move the ball up and down the field and should have no problems finishing drives. This is going to be a close game and I don’t see it being more that a one score game.
Tom Brady let me down last week off the bye, but off a loss he is even more impressive. He rarely loses in back-to-back weeks and if you include the loss before the bye, Brady has only lost three games in a row once in his whole career.
3.) Ravens straight up vs. Bears + Over 37.5 in Eagles-Saints
The Ravens playing the Bears should be a win for the Ravens. After a baffling loss to Miami, they will bounce back and play a better game against the Bears. The Ravens defense has been playing well and are only scored on when they allow big plays. The Bears struggle to pick up chunk plays. This should be a huge benefit for the Ravens.
Both the Saints and the Eagles can put up points. If Alvin Kamara plays, these teams should be able to combine for 37.5 points. The Eagles average over 25 points a game and the Saints average over 24. Both of their defenses allow around twenty points a game so just using the math, the over should hit.
Devonte Adams TD – Adams has had a quiet couple of weeks in the redzone and this must change for the Packers to win this game especially without Aaron Jones.
Ezekiel Elliot TD – the Chiefs defense isn’t very good, it’s in the bottom third of the NFL and the Cowboys have a good balance of run and pass. In the redzone they love the give the ball to Elliot.
AJ Brown TD – The Texans allow a lot of touchdowns and with Derrick Henry being hurt and no Julio Jones for the next couple weeks, Browns production should increase. This will be a week where AJ gets a lot of touches and finds the endzone.