Last week was a weird one in the NFL, but it was still a good one. I was 1-1 against the spread, 0-1 on the parlay, 2-0 on teasers, and 3-1 on prop bets. Overall, not a bad week at 6-3. Week 10 is another good slate, with a lot of good matchups and bets.
Bets Against the Spread
New England Patriots -1.5
The Patriots have proven to be a good football team this year. They run the ball well and play good defense. They are playing the Browns, who are having some issues right now. The first of which being injuries/Covid. The Browns running backs either have Covid or are hurt. Because of that, this game will be almost completely on Baker Mayfield’s shoulders. With no run game, the Browns aren’t the same team and, given the Patriots only needing to win by two, this is a great bet.
Los Angeles Rams -4
The Rams play the 49ers this week. San Francisco haven’t been the same team since they lost in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs two years ago. Meanwhile, Los Angeles suffered a tough loss last week to the Titans. But this will be a bounce back week for Matt Stafford. They need to protect Stafford, give him time to throw, and he will again be an MVP candidate this year.
ML Parlay Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Football Team, Los Angeles Chargers over Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans over New Orleans Saints, & New England Patriots over Cleveland Browns.
Bucs: All I’m going to say is that Tom Brady is 14-4 coming off the bye in his career. Don’t bet against Brady.
Chargers: The Vikings continue to lose games in terrible fashion this year and I expect this to continue. The Chargers offense has so many weapons and needs to show out this week. The Vikings are currently middle of the pack in pass defense. While the passing game is the Chargers’ offensive strength. Herbert and Co. should be able to exploit this matchup.
Titans: The Titans have proven that they are more than just the Derrick Henry show. They have beat all the best teams in the NFL (except the Cardinals, who they lost to week one). They have played amazing football and are extremely hard to beat. Tennessee should get an easy win against the injury-plagued New Orleans Saints.
Patriots: See the “against the spread” section above.
1) Baltimore Ravens -1.5 and Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Baltimore plays Miami on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens offense and Lamar Jackson have looked very good despite having to deal with a lot of injuries (especially in the RB room). The Dolphins struggle to play offense consistently every week and, even though the Ravens defense hasn’t been playing great, the only way to beat them is with big plays. The Ravens allow the most big plays in the NFL, and if they stop the big plays, their defense is elite.
Kansas City plays Las Vegas. Given this is a divisional game, it will likely be close. The Raiders have too many distractions going on off the field to be able to win a big game in prime time like this. The Chiefs offense might be struggling, but they are going to get back on track this week.
2) Dallas Cowboys -3 and Seattle Seahawks +9.5
Dallas plays Atlanta, who struggles on defense. The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL and are coming off a bad loss to the Broncos. This will be a bounce back week for them. They will have no problem with the Falcons.
Seahawks plays Green Bay and it’s still unclear if Aaron Rodgers will be able to play in this game. If Jordan Love plays, I love the Seahawks to win this game outright. This is the first game that Russell Wilson will be playing since he injured his finger about a month ago. Even if Rodgers does play, he will only have one day of practice under his belt.
1.) Leonard Fournette Anytime TD
The Bucs play the Football Team and Fournette has been an animal all year. He should score in this game.
2.) Lamar Jackson Anytime TD
The Dolphins defense is weak, and the Ravens are a run-first offense where Lamar runs the ball a lot. He’s gonna score. It’s as close to a sure-fire bet as you could get.
3.) Stefon Diggs Anytime TD
The Jets secondary is not good. Plus, it has been a tough couple weeks for the Bills offense. This week, they find life again and it all starts with Stefon Diggs.