The Formula For A Successful First Round NFL Draft Pick
There’s a lot of terms thrown around come NFL Draft season and everybody thinks they’re a draft guru. Right now, this very second, I’m going to teach you the draft formula for a successful first round pick. Keep in mind that this will be subjective. Some people will slot prospects higher or lower based on ranks, grades and simple eye tests.
What is: BPA
Best Player Available. Who will be the best player available for the Buffalo Bills at pick 9? That in itself is very difficult to predict. You never know who will get caught in a gas mask bong Twitter video on the morning of NFL draft day. Let’s name the possible top 5 prospects that could be there around pick 9. It’s important to consider prospects that Buffalo has actually met with, which will increase your odds of accurately predicting who could be drafted by Beane and company on day 1.
—> LT/OG Jonah Williams
—-> RT Jawaan Taylor
——> DT Ed Oliver
——-> WR DK Metcalf
———> DE Brian Burns
What is: NEED
What position do the Buffalo Bills actually NEED? There isn’t many needs at all, but we can name a top 5 position list of areas they need more than others.
Question: Can you marriage BPA and NEED together?
Most likely yes. In fact, that’s exactly what #NFL General Managers mean when they say BPA. If the best player available happens to be a QB, but Josh Allen is already at the helm, would they draft another QB in the first round in 2019? Of course not.
NEED = BPA (Draft Pick)
Solve: You hear all the time you never want to reach for a need in the first round of the NFL Draft. That’s true, but if you can manage to marry your two factors (BPA, NEED) together you will likely not reach and build a stronger team. Managing to work both position need and best player available together I’ve solved my formula with Florida Gators right tackle Jawaan Taylor. This is the part that is subjective. If you believe Dalton Risner or Cody Ford are the better right tackles, then by all means.
RT = Jawaan Taylor (9)
You can also use the formula for other positions you believe the Bills are taking a look at. For example, does Iowa Hawkeyes tight end T.J. Hockenson fit the formula? Is he a top 10 prospect in the NFL Draft? I don’t believe so. You can figure that there is more talent at other positions around our pick number 9. Why reach on a tight end that early when the tight end position is rather deep and what I believe, can find similar talent in a later round. You’d be reaching and busting your formula. The impact from a blue chip defensive lineman or offensive lineman I believe out weighs the impact of a blue chip tight end. The Bills added multiple o linemen in free agency, but have not necessarily answered a question mark for the right tackle position.
As I spoke in an earlier article, Ty Nsekhe is unproven at the right tackle position, even though he’s most likely slotted at starter for the time being. I believe the top 3 tackles in this upcoming class are blue chippers, making it difficult to pass on.
Let me know in the comments below what your final formula looks like.