Jenna’s Outlook Week 14: Bills (6-6) at Chiefs (8-4)

The Buffalo Bills are heading back to work after a much needed bye week. In comparison to bye weeks they’ve had in the past, their record of 6-6 is much worse. In 2019 they had just one loss, in 2020 they had three, in 2021 they had two, and in 2022 they had one loss prior to the bye week. This is the worst it’s been since Josh Allen first entered the league. Imagine going into the most pertinent stretch of the season with no room for error. That is where the Bills are at now. If that doesn’t make you nervous, then I don’t know what does. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing the Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead as their first matchup.

Let’s ignore all the noise on the outside of One Bills Drive, for now. What this team does moving forward will truly define their season. At this point, they are very healthy on the injury front (knock on wood). Both TE Dawson Knox and CB Kaiir Elam are on the brink of returning from injured reserve. They have each had their 21-day practice windows opened, and have logged in full days of participation since Wednesday. What’s next is for either of them to be activated off of injured reserve. Head Coach Sean McDermott confirmed that Knox has a clear chance to play on Sunday against the Chiefs. Elam, not so much.

Having Dawson back in the lineup would be a huge addition, despite how many people feel. Quintin Morris has been a great help in his absence, but Knox’s presence will be all the more enjoyed by the offense as he will take on blocking assignments in 12-personnel. Of course, the worry is that Dalton Kincaid will be displaced by such a move. Don’t worry, he won’t. The coaching staff knows how much of an impact Kincaid has had recently. If anything, having Knox back will serve as an embellishment. That’s not to say he won’t contribute, but imagine how defenses will have to defend an established Kincaid with a healthy Knox. As an added bonus, opponents don’t know how Joe Brady will utilize his personnel packages now.

The Chiefs have not looked the same since they lifted the Lombardi in February. Yet I do not want to misjudge them. Besides, this is Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes we are talking about. However, they won’t have starting RB Isiah Pacheco, S Bryan Cook, and LT Donovan Smith, as well as backup MLB Drue Tranquill. They will get starting MLB Nick Bolton back from injured reserve after recovering from a wrist dislocation. Despite their apparent injury bug, the Chiefs present numerous challenges to the Bills given their recent history and the fact that they are coming off of a Super Bowl championship. If we’ve learned anything in previous matchups, it’s to never underestimate Patrick Mahomes coming off a loss.

Matchup to Watch Out For: Bills Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Despite the fact that Bryan Cook will be out this week, the Bills offense will be in for a test against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that has been playing way better than years’ past. In the Mahomes era, the Chiefs’ regular season defense has always been middle of the pack, yet they tend to outperform those rankings in the playoffs.

This season, they are ranked third in the league in points per game allowed, giving up 17.3 points per game in 2023. They are giving up 183 passing yards per game, which is sixth in the league. How will the absence of Cook impact their pass defense? Will Bolton’s return aid in their ability to defend in pass coverage? The Chiefs are also top ten in sacks per game (3.3) and sack percentage (9.26%). How the Bills offensive line does against the Chiefs pass rush will determine just how effective the offense will be against the remainder of their defense.

Prediction: The Buffalo Bills make a statement

Yes, I said it. I believe this game against the Chiefs will be a statement game for the Bills. The way that they played against the Philadelphia Eagles, despite the disappointing loss, should have already served as an alert to the league — let this be a reminder. There are a million reasons as to why the Bills are 6-6, but it is not because of their motivation. Many players have already addressed how important these coming weeks are. WR Stefon Diggs certainly believes that the team is capable of doing better. On Friday after practice, he reiterated what many Bills fans feel: 

“The adversity kind of shows you that it’s nothing that we can’t handle. We’ve been through a lot. Our record says one thing, who we are as a team is another. But we’re in a great spot. I don’t think too many teams or people in the league won’t say we’re a good team.” 

Stefon Diggs

Although there has been some drama that has plagued the team since their last game, I think it’s safe to say that there is still a sense of urgency within the locker room. I believe that will present itself for the remainder of the regular season, and especially in this game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Conclusion

No fan asked for the Buffalo Bills to be in this position in Week 14, yet here they are. It’s a tough pill to swallow, especially after the sustained success they’ve had since 2020. What we can look forward to, however, is how the team responds. Not long ago did the Bills find themselves backed against a wall after suffering back to back losses to New England and Tampa Bay in 2021, which resulted in a winning streak which took them into their most prolific playoff performance in franchise history.

Perhaps we may see that again, unless something gets in the way. Unfortunately, they have beaten themselves before taking a swing at their opponent in some of their games, but it is not yet time to ring the bell. These next five games will, like I said, gauge exactly how the Buffalo Bills’ 2023 season will be looked at once the confetti begins to fly in February.

In Week 15, the Bills will be back in Orchard Park to take on the Dallas Cowboys. So make sure you tune in when I release the next edition of Jenna’s Outlook!

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