Game Preview: Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

Game 272. They say to always save the best for last. That is exactly what the NFL did by selecting the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins as the very last game of the 2023 NFL Regular Season. By now you probably know the scenarios. But if not, here is where things stand…

Win and Buffalo become the AFC’s #2 seed, with the possibility of hosting 1-2 playoff games in Orchard Park. Lose and possibly be cleaning out lockers on Monday afternoon instead. The stakes could not be higher for the Bills, a team that was all but written off a month and half ago. The tumultuous regular season ends one way or another Sunday night in South Beach, so let’s dive in.

The Last Five

Bills 48 Dolphins 20 (2023)
Bills 34 Dolphins 31 (2023 – AFC Wild Card)
Bills 32 Dolphins 29 (2022)
Dolphins 21 Bills 19 (2022)
Bills 26 Dolphins 11 (2021)

The recent history is well-noted by now. The Buffalo Bills have dominated the Miami Dolphins since Sean McDermott was hired. The Bills own a 12-2 record against the Dolphins since 2017. It easily could be 14-0 if it weren’t for a Charles Clay drop and a spiked ball that took one second too long. Sunday night will be the 121st time the two division rivals play with the Dolphins leading the series 62-57-1.

What To Watch For: Buffalo Bills

Come To Daddy – The Josh Allen/Miami Dolphins memes create themselves at this point. Josh Allen, or more commonly known as the Miami Dolphins’ father, has been dominant against the Dolphins in his career. Here is a look at Allen’s 11 regular season games against Miami. Dolphins fans might want to look away.

If Allen played the Dolphins every week, he would be a First-Team All Pro and MVP, but he would probably still miss the Pro Bowl. If Allen explodes yet again on Sunday night, there truly will be no explanation except that he plays his best ball against the Dolphins. Allen has struggled as of late, and is dealing with some injuries that could have a direct impact on his ability. An MVP-caliber game after the past two weeks will be all the evidence needed that the Dolphins cannot stop him. If the Bills want to do any damage in the playoffs, or even make the playoffs, Allen will need to play better than he has all year. It is now time for him to get hot.

Been There, Done That – Every year is different and every team has a new set of things to prove, but the Buffalo Bills need to rely on their experience and all that that encompasses in their biggest game of the year. The Bills are no stranger to high pressure, win-or-go-home games. They know what the week of preparation is like beforehand. They know how to handle the in-game pressures and situations that will inevitably arise. Their experience in these situations is a byproduct of their “sustained success”, something that Miami does not have as much as over the past seven years. It would be nice if that experience in big games would count for something. Now is the time for Bills to bank on their preparation and experience.

Mental Mistakes – The only team that can beat the Bills are the Bills. It has happened six times already this year. It will be the thing that prevents them from winning on Sunday or in the playoffs, if they make it. We saw some mistakes creep up this past Sunday: offensive miscues, sloppiness in the red zone, penalties that put them in difficult “early down” situations or wiped out big plays. Last week against New England, the defense bailed out the offense time and time again. It’s hard to think the Dolphins will implode on offense as badly as the Patriots did in the first half on Sunday. A handful of mental mistakes might prove much more costly this week for the Bills.

What To Watch For: Miami Dolphins

Injuries – I wish we could start elsewhere with the Dolphins, something “sexier” than injuries. They have so many innovative things going on in terms of the Xs and Os with Mike McDaniel at the helm. However, we cannot ignore the injury situation in Miami. The discrepancy in the two injury reports is quite large, and the players that the Dolphins will not, or might not, have on Sunday is significant, to say the least. We don’t have the time to go through all of the players that are dealing with injuries, but I will highlight the ones that are most significant for the Dolphins.

Last week, the Dolphins lost Bradley Chubb for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. Chubb was the team leader in sacks with 13. Now, despite having 19 players on their injury report, most of whom were limited on Wednesday and Thursday, only four players carry an injury designation into the game. Could this possibly be some gamesmanship on behalf of Mike McDaniel? Starting cornerback Xavien Howard will not play with foot injury. Running back Raheem Mostert is questionable for the game, as is Jaylen Waddle. Both players were DNP-DNP-Limited on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. That’s typically not a good sign to play. But I would be surprised if at least one didn’t give it a try. The only other questionable player is linebacker Jerome Baker.

While Tyreek Hill will play, it is important to note he was in a walking boot as recently as Wednesday. Some key players for the Dolphins are not healthy, and it could cost them big time in this game.

An Apple A Day – Eli Apple is the one player who both fanbases and the media have zeroed in on this week as a matchup for the Bills offense to exploit. If they do, it won’t be unexpected as Apple has been one of the most targeted cornerbacks this season. Teams are throwing his way once every 4.8 snaps. While Apple has caught the eye of many, my eyes will be on Kader Kohou, who was exposed early and often back on October 1st when these two teams played in Buffalo. Kohou gave up 4 receptions for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns while covering Stefon Diggs. If the game wasn’t so out of reach by halftime, I’m sure that would have been more.

Jalen Ramsey was not available in that Week 4 game. So his presence this time around might limit how much we see on Kohou, but while he is on the field you can bet Allen will look his way. Sunday will be the first time Jalen Ramsey plays the Bills this season. He will have to play much better than he has against Josh Allen in the past if he is going to compensate for Howard’s absence.

Pride – From a Miami Dolphins perspective, how can they not win this game? Miami led the AFC East for 17 of the 18 weeks in the regular season, including a three game lead with five games to play. They watched from afar as the Buffalo Bills imploded before them, firing their offensive coordinator mid-season, having to deal with damning articles about their head coach, finding new ways to lose against bad teams. While the Bills struggled to gain traction, the Dolphins dropped 70 points on the Broncos, talks heated up for Tua and Tyreek for MVP and Mike McDaniel for Coach of the Year.

Now, the Dolphins find themselves 60 minutes way from one of the worst regular-season collapses you’ll ever see. Miami’s struggles against winning teams is something that they have taken personally. However, outside of a last-second win against Dallas, the Dolphins have not been impressive when they play the league’s best. After surrendering a 56-burger last week against the Ravens, the Dolphins are underdogs in their own stadium. They will be motivated by pride, if nothing else, to end the Bills’ reign atop the division and put an end to some narratives that have followed them this year. Eventually the law of averages has to win out, right?!? The Bills cannot keep beating the Dolphins time and time again. Unless they can. Need we forget, the Patriots beat the Bills 35 out of 39 times from 2000 to 2019.

Prediction

Buffalo Bills 34 Miami Dolphins 26. A scenario that seemed impossible just a few weeks ago is now right in front of the Bills. Win and retain what is rightfully theirs — the AFC East Title. I have been a bit hesitant this week to think that the Bills can continue their dominance the Dolphins. Miami certainly wants to end the narratives and doubt that surrounds them. I think the Phins keep things more competitive this time around. However, the injuries that they are dealing with might be too much for them to overcome. Go Bills!

Featured Image Credit: Jaime Germano/Rochester Democrat & Chronicle – USA TODAY Sports