Doubt in the Bills Playoff Route: How Does the AFC Shake Out (Week 13)?

Just when we thought that the Buffalo Bills had a chance to make a playoff run, their feet were suddenly swept out from underneath them before they could even walk. What seemingly was the easiest part of their schedule turned into five losses, and now they sit at 6-6 after suffering a disappointing overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. What’s next?

The Bills are heading into their Week 13 bye with a tough road ahead. They face the Chiefs in Kansas City, Cowboys at home, Chargers in Los Angeles, Patriots at home, and Dolphins in Miami to round out the regular season. There is not a lot of time for soul searching, and it is not just as simple as winning out. The Bills will need some help along the way.

Current AFC Standings

On the outside looking in, the Bills sit in 10th place in the AFC. A few teams (that not many would have expected) are ahead of them: the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Denver Broncos. That is an issue for two reasons: (1) the Broncos have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, and (2) the Bills have the worst conference record out of all of the aforementioned teams.

Which teams are behind the Bills in the AFC seeding? The Cincinnati Bengals, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, and New England Patriots. Of course, the Bills beat the Raiders back in Week 2 and they split their season series with the Jets. However, they lost head-to-head against the Bengals and have a current losing record against the Patriots. They face the Chargers in Week 16. Also, Buffalo has a chance to avenge their loss to New England in Week 17.

The division leaders, at the moment, are the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, and Jacksonville Jaguars. I don’t expect much of that to change, unless the Bills can unseat the Dolphins in the coming weeks. It is certainly possible, but things would have to go perfectly for the Bills and they would need to rely on a couple of the Dolphins’ opponents. (More on this later.)

Week 12 Results: AFC Wild Card Teams

There’s nothing more that can be said about the Bills’ loss to the Eagles. It has put them in a strangled position — one that is more or less of their own doing. Unfortunately, the consequence is that we, as fans, have to do some scoreboard watching. In Week 12, there were some notable matchups that further changed the landscape of the playoff picture.

Having two teams, who are directly impacting the seeding, play each other is favorable in some respects. One may think that Denver beating Cleveland is a bad thing considering the tiebreaker they have over Buffalo. However, the Browns’ conference record (5-3) is a weapon that must be disarmed. The Broncos have a 3-4 conference record, which is much more palatable.

Although the Joe Burrow injury loosens the tightness of the AFC playoff race, it may prove to be consequential as the Bengals prepare to face teams that the Bills will need help against. Their loss to the Steelers is damaging. It gave Pittsburgh a leg up in the wild card race, but also kept the Bengals behind the Bills in the standings.

The Colts have, unfortunately, entered into the mix as well despite losing starting rookie QB, Anthony Richardson, for the season. A Bucs win would’ve meant just as much to the Bills as a Colts loss because it would’ve bolstered Buffalo’s strength of victory tiebreaker. Instead, QB Gardner Minshew found a way to insert himself into the playoff conversation.

Out of all the matchups that mattered, Jacksonville pulling out a victory in Houston was the icing on the cake. The Bills lost the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jaguars. However, Jacksonville’s division title race could work to Buffalo’s advantage if they can knock out some of the other wild card adversaries. Buffalo will need more of their help in the coming weeks.

Notable Games During the Bills’ Bye Week

(This section is brought to you by the ESPN 2023 NFL Playoff Machine.)

Just because the Buffalo Bills have the week off, it doesn’t mean you will. There are four games in Week 13 that you will want to pay attention to:

1. Cardinals at Steelers (7-4)
2. Colts (6-5) at Titans
3. Broncos (6-5) at Texans (6-5)
4. Browns (7-4) at Rams

Two of those games feature inter-conference matchups, so it makes sense to root for the Cardinals and Rams this week. The Titans have all but eliminated themselves from playoff contention, as they are in the Bills’ rear view mirror. Therefore, a Titans win over the Colts would be very favorable for Buffalo’s playoff hopes.

Broncos-Texans Scenarios

Now, the game between Denver and Houston is tough to decide because both teams currently hold a 6-5 record. The difference between the two is their conference records, and the fact that Denver has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills. Here are the potential outcomes for this game:

1. Texans Win: Houston moves to 7-5 (4-3 in AFC). Denver falls to 6-6 (3-5 in AFC).
2. Broncos Win: Denver moves to 7-5 (4-4 in AFC). Houston falls to 6-6 (3-4 in AFC).
3. Texans/Broncos Tie: Both become 6-6-1 (Houston goes to 3-3-1, Denver goes to 3-4-1 in AFC).

Which scenario would be favorable in the long run? Ultimately, a Broncos loss would be most beneficial. In the event the Broncos lose any (additional) one of their remaining games, the Bills could gain a cushion on Denver’s head-to-head tiebreaker (even if they lose one as well).

Do the Buffalo Bills have to win out?

The short answer is yes, the Bills do have to win out. But that is only if they want a chance at winning the division. Or if they want to get into the playoffs without too much help.

(Enter the ESPN 2023 NFL Playoff Machine again.)

AFC East Scenarios

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but Miami has to play Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo (again) to close out the season. There is a real chance that they could lose to all three of those teams, which would put the Bills in prime position to steal the division title at the last minute.

If the Bills drop one more game, but it’s not to Miami, they essentially have no shot at winning the division. The Dolphins would have to lose yet another game to guarantee that the Bills hold the tiebreaker, and we all know that the Commanders, Titans, and Jets don’t have it in them to beat the Dolphins. (I mean that with no disrespect to those teams, but it’s true.)

Check out this scenario: Even if the Buffalo Bills win their next four games, and the Dolphins lose to any two of those three aforementioned teams, and they lose to the Cowboys and Ravens, the Bills would still need to beat the Dolphins in Week 18 to win the AFC East. The Bills must complete the season sweep over the Dolphins due to the disparity in conference record.

Now, back to what I said about the Bills needing some help even if they win out. Remember, this scenario only applies if the Dolphins exceed the Bills’ win percentage or if they hold a tiebreaker over Buffalo while still matching the Bills’ win percentage.

Wild Card Implications

I also mentioned how a Broncos loss to the Texans would be the optimal outcome. Buffalo’s wild card fate could fall on the outcome of not just Houston’s Week 13 matchup, but almost every one of their remaining games. Houston plays Cleveland and Indianapolis to end the season, two of the teams that are in the Bills’ way. Buffalo will have to take care of business and attach themselves at the hip of the team that ended their playoff hopes just about four years ago. An interesting development.

Conclusion

Although not encouraging, the Eagles loss served as every bit of a wake-up call that the Bills and their fans could ask for. Not too long ago, the Bills experienced something similar when they fell to Tampa Bay in overtime in 2021. Subsequently, they went on a win streak which secured their second consecutive division title. They’re going to need to do the same thing again in 2023. It will be much harder this time because their remaining schedule is very tough and they will need additional help along the way.

However, we know the NFL is full of parity. It is a week-to-week league; anything can happen. Not-so-good teams beat good teams from time to time. All that we (as fans) can ask for is the Bills show every ounce of determination to win, and we should just let the season play out. From what I’ve learned over the past several years the Bills have been in the playoff race is that it’s not over until it is over.

Have a happy bye week everybody. Watch out for the Week 14 edition of “Jenna’s Outlook”, when the Bills head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs!

Featured Image Credit: Omar Rawlings/Getty Images