If history can tell us anything it’s that Brandon Beane always moves and trades picks during the draft. Every season that this regime has been in charge, the Bills have moved up or down during the second and third rounds. Along with moving around in the first round, when they traded down in 2017 and traded up twice in 2018. Essentially, the Bills usually don’t pick where they are slated to during the first three rounds of the draft.
For the 2020 NFL Draft, I expect this trend to continue. Beane has always been about getting his guys at the right value. He knows where he needs to be to get who he wants. Aside from Ed Oliver falling into the Bills lap in 2019, this has always been the case. However, should the Bills trade up or down, and when should they execute a trade? This week’s Thursday Thought: Why the Bills should trade back in the 2020 draft.
It’s not of matter of if Beane will trade during the draft, but more a matter of when and what. To figure out what would make the most sense for the Bills, I did several mock drafts just to see who would be available at certain picks and who seems to be falling a decent amount of the time. After doing too many mock drafts I came to my conclusion. The Bills need to trade back from the 54th pick.
Every time the mock draft simulator I used got the Bills first pick, there were at least six to seven players that I would have no problem taking. Kyle Dugger, Bryce Hall, K.J. Hamler, and Cam Akers were some of the names available at 54. However, as the simulator continued on I noticed many good players falling into the third round. This had me thinking of two different scenarios. First, the Bills should trade back in the second, so they can trade up in the third. Second, the Bills should trade back in the second to allow themselves to trade back into the third round. Meaning the Bills would make two picks in the third round.
Let’s say the Bills wanted to move back six spots in the second round. In this instance, they would need the Ravens (who own the 60th overall pick) to trade them their fourth-round pick along with their second-round pick with Buffalo, according to the draft value chart posted by The Buffalo Fanatics on Tuesday. This would give the Bills two fourths, a fifth, two sixths, and a seventh-round pick for day three. That’s six picks just in day three alone.
With the state of this roster, multiple late-round picks would likely not make the team. So why not use all that capital to go back into the third-round or move way up in the third round to get a valuable player. Maybe they move up to get a player like Zack Moss or Akers at the top of the third or after using their first third-round pick they trade back into the third-round and draft a falling player. Regardless, trading back in the second-round simply gives the Bills more options.
Beane never sits still during the draft. He’s always looking to trade and manipulate the board to work in his favor. With the roster a few finishing touches away from being completely ready for AFC contention, expect the Bills to make a move. Hopefully, it’s a trade back from their second-round pick.
Mitch Broder is a contributor for The Buffalo Fanatics. To contact him, email him at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter @mitchell_broder