After an entertaining matchup with the Dolphins during Wild Card Weekend, the Buffalo Bills prepare for the Divisional Round this Sunday at 3 pm. This time, the Bills will meet the Cincinnati Bengals, but with much more at stake. It’s win or go home.
SI Sportsbook estimates the game total at 48.5, with the Bills favored by 5.5. Neither team had smooth Wild Card games by any means, but the Bills are still predicted to come out on top. While Buffalo stays winning, I’m sure some of you want to too. So, let’s talk betting props.
1.) Josh Allen Over 266.5 Passing Yards (-114)
It’s always fun to watch Allen run the ball, and sometimes even hurdle defenders, but the Buffalo Bills are primarily a passing team that will look to their star QB to win this game. In two of the past six games, he has surpassed 266.5 passing yards. If Playoff Josh is in full force, it’s likely he will have 35+ passing attempts. Allen had 35+ in eight games this season and in six of those, he passed for more than 266.5 yards. If you’re looking for a safe option, this might be a good prop for you.
2.) Dawson Knox Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
The Bengals defense has run a tight ship all year, except when they’re up against tight ends. “Cincinnati has allowed the eighth-most yards per game to the position for an average of 60 per contest,” according to Sports Illustrated. That being said, Knox should see a few extra targets in this game.
3.) Stefon Diggs Anytime TD Scorer (+111)
The Allen-Diggs TD duo is about as good as it gets. However, the Bengals defense will not make it easy for Allen’s favorite receiver. While only scoring one TD in the past five games, Diggs has scored 11 total this season. In a game this important, I can assure you Allen will be looking to make the connection with Diggs for a 12th time Sunday in Orchard Park. And if he’s going up against CB Eli Apple, he’ll have a good shot at doing so.
4.) Joe Burrow Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-128)
While the Bengals offense doesn’t exactly rank the highest in pass-blocking grade, this is nothing new to Burrow. Unfortunately for the Bills, he also works well under pressure – with the third-highest completion percentage amongst qualified QBs. He is great at moving into the pocket and picking up yards on the ground if necessary. Whether you want to bet on Burrow or not is up to you, but I know he’ll put up a good fight in the Divisional Round.
5.) Joe Mixon Over 75.5 Rushing And Receiving Yards (-120)
Sunday will be a true test, to say the least. If the Buffalo Bills establish an early lead (and I hope they do), it will become increasingly difficult for the Bengals to protect Burrow. Having seen double digit carries in five straight games, Joe Mixon could help Cincinnati establish the early run game against Buffalo. He may become a bigger factor than we think heading into this matchup.
It’s safe to say both teams are going to have their hands full this weekend. Truthfully, I’m a bit nervous about Josh Allen’s ball security. At the same time, if I were a Bengals fan, I would be even more concerned with Joe Burrow’s pass protection. Either way, I know for a fact it’s going to be one heck of a game.
In terms of the final score, I think it will remain close the entire time. I have the Bills winning by three, just a few points over the projected total… 27-24, Buffalo.
Whether you want to take my props into consideration or not is up to you, but remember, I was 5 for 5 on my game day predictions last week! So may the odds be ever in your favor.
As always, GO BILLS! Let’s wrangle the Bengals.
Featured Image: Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images; Nic Antaya/Getty Images