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Buffalo Bills Fantasy: Dawson Knox is a Top 5 TE



Three weeks folks, that’s the time frame. That’s all we have. It’s time to get our posted cards ready. It’s time to set up the whiteboard in our living room and bore our significant others with random facts about random players. You call them by their first names because you’re the Coach/GM. You’ve trained for this moment. It’s what you’ve been waiting for, for the last six months. It’s Fantasy Football Draft day!

This time around is different. So, what if you’ve won your league two times? It’s time for the third, and you’ve got a secret weapon. You don your bandanna around your forehead like a sweatband. Things are getting serious now. You stare at the name on your posted card. You’re ready to rush it up to your friends. The shock on some of their faces will be worth it knowing yours will have a smug look on it.

You take a deep breath and close your eyes. Your commissioner calls out your name stating it’s your pick for this round. You open your eyes. You whisper “Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo.” Hushed murmurs ripple through your best friend’s living room. You glance at your significant other. The look on their face says it all, but they don’t take this day seriously. No this isn’t their day, this is yours. “Dawson Knox TE Buffalo!” you declare louder as you stand up. You know it’s a risk, but it’s a risk you’re willing to take. 

You walk the posted card up to the draft board and clip it in its rightful spot. You’re happy with your decision. You know this secret weapon will push you over the edge. Last year’s fall in the championship game still leaves a sour taste in your mouth, but for a moment, for this moment, it’s gone. You’re at peace. You made the right decision. It’s draft day, and this is your story. 

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This could be you and I’m here to explain why I think Dawson Knox is ready to take that step even with the addition of Stefon Diggs. See, Knox reminds me of a guy out of Baltimore that saw a huge uptick in targets his second year and has become a top-five TE and could easily be a top-three guy. That guy is Mark Andrews.

Dawson Knox Stats

Let’s talk stats for a moment. Knox’s rookie year was full of hope. Many of us fans hoped that he would turn into the Gronk for Josh Allen. Unfortunately, his hands were just awful. Knox was targeted 50 times and had 28 receptions at a 56 percent catch rate. Maybe I exaggerated about his hands being awful, but as a fan we want a Pro TE to catch everything. Knox came in just shy of 400 yards, only totaling 388 his rookie season but posting a 13.9 yards per catch. Which is impressive. He also only posted two touchdowns. It’s worth noting that Pro TE’s take about a year to get accustomed to the rigorous NFL setting. 

Mark Andrews Stats

Now let’s compare that to Mark Andrews rookie year. Andrews played one more game then Knox and was targeted the same amount, hauling in 34 receptions at a 68 percent catch rate. Andrews ended up with 552 yards at an even more impressive 16.2 yards per catch and three touchdowns. Both of these players have pretty similar stat lines for their rookie year. What I want to point out is how much of a boom in usage Andrews saw his sophomore year, and maybe what we can expect from Knox. Andrews in 2019 saw his targets increase by almost 50 percent with 98. He ended up hauling in 64 receptions with 852 yards at 13.3 yards per catch and 10 touchdowns. Andrews’ catch percentage even dropped three points coming in at 65.3 percent. 

Now, before I read all the comments about how Andrews is the only playmaker in Baltimore or how he has Lamarr Jackson throwing him the ball or whatever … I know they’re in different situations. Plus, Josh Allen is a better QB. (I’m not biased, I swear.) Look, there’s only one ball and Allen has multiple playmakers at every position. However, if we see a jump similar to Andrews from Knox, he might be the Flex or TE number 2 type player that’ll get you those extra points to win a game. 

Fantasy Outlook

Knox’s realistic reception count should be around 60. I do foresee him putting up around 700 to 800 yards, and if he isn’t a target in the redzone with his size and body, I might go crazy. It’s not stupid to think he could get around 7 or 8 touchdowns. So strap on that bandanna, and write down his name. Do it with pride. Dawson Knox is the TE for you. 

Don’t forget to wake up every Sunday Morning and catch me on BuffCity Podcast talking all things Fantasy Football and Gambling. Only on the Buffalo Fanatics Podcasting Network.   

Fantasy Preview: Def/K | BuffCity by The Daily Buffalo: A Buffalo Bills PodNetwork

Casey is joined by Anthony of The Hoof Pod to preview fantasy defense and kickers.